Suwon City FC 0-1 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gwangju FC at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 24 as Suwon City FC welcome Gwangju FC to Suwon Sports Complex. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 July 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Suwon City FC have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Suwon City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Suwon Sports Complex, Suwon City FC have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Suwon City FC are significantly better at Suwon Sports Complex than their overall form suggests.
Gwangju FC — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gwangju FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gwangju FC have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Gwangju FC's 1.70 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Suwon City FC's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Suwon City FC, 2 for Gwangju FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 May 2023, ended 0–2 with Gwangju FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Suwon City FC trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Gwangju FC trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 61% versus Gwangju FC 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 65% | Gwangju FC 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.34 xG and Gwangju FC 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 0.990 / defence 1.432 | Gwangju FC attack 0.835 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.184. Data: 56 Suwon City FC games / 23 Gwangju FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 34% | Draw 29% | Gwangju FC 37%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Gwangju FC 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gwangju FC as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gwangju FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Suwon City FC 50% | Gwangju FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jul 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 34% | Draw 29% | Gwangju FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Suwon City FC 1.34 / Gwangju FC 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 0.990 / def 1.432 | Gwangju FC attack 0.835 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Gwangju FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Gwangju FC xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 22 July 2023 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC?
Suwon City FC 0 - 1 Gwangju FC.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC part of?
Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 34% chance of winning, Gwangju FC a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gwangju FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC?
Record (2 meetings): Suwon City FC 0W | Draws 0 | Gwangju FC 2W.
What form are Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Gwangju FC (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Suwon City FC's attack rating (0.99) and Gwangju FC's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gwangju FC's attack versus Suwon City FC's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gwangju FC Win
34%
2.98
29%
3.39
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.76
1.42
Gwangju FC xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
8%
12.29
10%
10.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.1 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.42 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Suwon City FC come into this having played 23 games, going 5W 5D 13L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Suwon City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gwangju FC sit at 1.35 PPG from 23 outings (8W 7D 8L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Gwangju FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gwangju FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Suwon City FC's home form reads 4W 3D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.87 PPG overall — Suwon City FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Gwangju FC have taken 1.18 points per game from 11 outings (3W 4D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game recently; Gwangju FC are on 1.22 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Blended
Gwangju FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 5W 5D 13L in their last 23 games (0.87 PPG), while Gwangju FC have gone 8W 7D 8L in their last 23 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Gwangju FC away?
Suwon City FC's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.36 PPG; Gwangju FC away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Suwon City FC or Gwangju FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon City FC have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Gwangju FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Gwangju FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Suwon City FC's record when hosting Gwangju FC specifically: 2W 0D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon City FC
1
Draws
6
Gwangju FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 3, Gwangju FC have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Suwon City FC 0-1 Gwangju FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC?
Gwangju FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 54%, Gwangju FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Suwon City FC) and 27% (Gwangju FC).
On the defensive side: Suwon City FC have failed to score in 27% of games; Gwangju FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Gwangju FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play Gwangju FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Suwon City FC's recent matches and 54% of Gwangju FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Suwon City FC's recent games and 27% of Gwangju FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Gwangju FC in 36% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gwangju FC edge out Suwon City FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gwangju FC beat Suwon City FC 0-1 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 24, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.34 xG and Gwangju FC 1.42 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Suwon City FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.43 against Gwangju FC attack 0.83 / defence 0.99, drawn from 56/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 34% | Draw 29% | Gwangju FC 37%, with Gwangju FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 65%, Gwangju FC 26%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gwangju FC's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Gwangju FC arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.