Suwon City FC 0-2 FC Seoul – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Seoul make the trip to Suwon Sports Complex to face Suwon City FC in K League 1, Relegation Round - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 October 2022 at 07:00 UTC.
Form
Suwon City FC (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Suwon City FC's home record at Suwon Sports Complex: 5W 3D 2L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Suwon City FC are significantly better at Suwon Sports Complex than their overall form suggests.
FC Seoul have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, FC Seoul have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Suwon City FC's favour (1.20 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Suwon City FC — key trading statistics (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
FC Seoul — key trading statistics (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 61% versus FC Seoul 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 63% | FC Seoul 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.83 xG and FC Seoul 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.260 / defence 1.202 | FC Seoul attack 0.893 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.241. Suwon City FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — their λ of 1.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 66 Suwon City FC games / 66 FC Seoul games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 49% | Draw 23% | FC Seoul 28%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.04 | Draw 4.35 | FC Seoul 3.57. Suwon City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Suwon City FC are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Suwon City FC 80% | FC Seoul 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 07:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 49% | Draw 23% | FC Seoul 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Suwon City FC 1.83 / FC Seoul 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 1.260 / def 1.202 | FC Seoul attack 0.893 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.33
FC Seoul xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul kick off?
Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul kicked off at 07:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul?
Suwon City FC 0 - 2 FC Seoul.
Where is Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul part of?
Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 49% chance of winning, FC Seoul a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Suwon City FC and FC Seoul will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and FC Seoul?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon City FC and FC Seoul in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. FC Seoul (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Suwon City FC's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against FC Seoul's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. Flip it around — FC Seoul's attack (0.89x) against Suwon City FC's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
49%
2.04
23%
4.37
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
3.16
1.33
FC Seoul xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
16%
6.21
Win to Nil
13%
7.72
5%
22.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.3 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and FC Seoul expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.33 for FC Seoul, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 75 outings, Suwon City FC have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 27W 18D 30L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
FC Seoul's form line: 22W 24D 29L from 75 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Suwon City FC against 1.20 for FC Seoul. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Suwon City FC have posted 1.62 PPG from 37 outings (18W 6D 13L).
On the road, FC Seoul have gone 11W 13D 13L from 37 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; FC Seoul are on 1.16 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 75 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Current Season
FC Seoul
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and FC Seoul in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 27W 18D 30L in their last 75 games (1.32 PPG), while FC Seoul have gone 22W 24D 29L in their last 75 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or FC Seoul away?
Suwon City FC's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.62 PPG; FC Seoul away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Seoul won 7-2 on 12 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon City FC have gone 0W 3D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against FC Seoul — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Suwon City FC
4
Draws
6
FC Seoul
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and FC Seoul?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 0, FC Seoul have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and FC Seoul last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-1 FC Seoul.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and FC Seoul?
FC Seoul have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
FC Seoul see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 73%, FC Seoul 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 76% (Suwon City FC) and 35% (FC Seoul). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Seoul in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / FC Seoul away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play FC Seoul?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Suwon City FC's games and 54% of FC Seoul's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Suwon City FC's matches and 35% of FC Seoul's.
Do Suwon City FC and FC Seoul tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, FC Seoul in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Seoul cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Suwon City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Seoul beat Suwon City FC 0-2 at Suwon Sports Complex, Relegation Round - 5, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.83 xG and FC Seoul 1.33 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Suwon City FC fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.26 / defence 1.20 against FC Seoul attack 0.89 / defence 1.04, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 49% | Draw 23% | FC Seoul 28%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual FC Seoul win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 63%, FC Seoul 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Seoul's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.32 PPG, FC Seoul 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Seoul win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Seoul (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.