Suwon City FC 0-2 FC Seoul – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 41%, yet in-form FC Seoul provide a compelling counter-argument — this Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Seoul make the trip to Suwon Sports Complex to face Suwon City FC in K League 1 (matchday 10). The match kicks off on Tuesday 30 April 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Form
Suwon City FC (all games): 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Suwon City FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Seoul have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, FC Seoul have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, FC Seoul are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Suwon City FC's last 10 home games and FC Seoul's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 90% of Suwon City FC's games and 70% of FC Seoul's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, FC Seoul edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 6.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2023, ended Suwon City FC 3–4 FC Seoul — a FC Seoul win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 6.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Suwon City FC — key trading statistics (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 30 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
FC Seoul — key trading statistics (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 48%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Suwon City FC 63% and FC Seoul 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 63% | FC Seoul 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Suwon City FC surrender their half-time lead 47% of the time, while FC Seoul have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 42% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that FC Seoul surrender HT leads in 48% of cases while Suwon City FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.40 xG and FC Seoul 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 0.921 / defence 1.196 | FC Seoul attack 0.848 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.119. Data: built from Suwon City FC's last 42 games and FC Seoul's last 42.
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 41% | Draw 31% | FC Seoul 28%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.46 | Draw 3.20 | FC Seoul 3.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Suwon City FC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Seoul (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — low conviction — though recent form (Suwon City FC's last 10 home games and FC Seoul's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 6.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches point the other way.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Suwon City FC 90% (last 10 home games) | FC Seoul 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul | Competition: K League 1, matchday 10 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 April 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 41% | Draw 31% | FC Seoul 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Suwon City FC 1.40 / FC Seoul 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 0.921 / def 1.196 | FC Seoul attack 0.848 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.14
FC Seoul xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul FAQs
What time does Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul kick off?
Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Tuesday 30 April 2024 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul?
Suwon City FC 0 - 2 FC Seoul.
Where is Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul part of?
Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 10) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 41% chance of winning, FC Seoul a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Suwon City FC and FC Seoul will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Suwon City FC's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against FC Seoul's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — FC Seoul's attack (0.85x) against Suwon City FC's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from Suwon City FC's last 42 games and FC Seoul's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
41%
2.46
31%
3.20
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.54
1.14
FC Seoul xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
13%
7.65
7%
14.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and FC Seoul expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.14 for FC Seoul, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 76 outings, Suwon City FC have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 22W 18D 36L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five.
FC Seoul's form line: 25W 26D 25L from 76 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Suwon City FC against 1.33 for FC Seoul. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Suwon City FC have posted 1.26 PPG from their last 38 home games (13W 9D 16L).
On the road, FC Seoul have gone 12W 14D 12L from their last 38 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; FC Seoul are on 1.39 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Current Season
FC Seoul
Current Season
Suwon City FC (Home) vs FC Seoul (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Suwon City FC
Current Season
FC Seoul
Current Season
❓ Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul Form FAQs
What form are Suwon City FC and FC Seoul in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 22W 18D 36L in their last 76 games (1.11 PPG), while FC Seoul have gone 25W 26D 25L in their last 76 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or FC Seoul away?
FC Seoul's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.26 PPG; FC Seoul away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent in our data was on 5 October 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Seoul won FC Seoul 7-2 Suwon City FC on 12 Jul 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon City FC have gone 0W 3D 3L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Seoul — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Suwon City FC
4
Draws
6
FC Seoul
Recent Meetings
❓ Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and FC Seoul?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Suwon City FC have won 0, FC Seoul have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and FC Seoul last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 October 2025: Suwon City FC 1-1 FC Seoul.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and FC Seoul?
FC Seoul have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 54% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
FC Seoul are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 71%, FC Seoul 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Suwon City FC) and 42% (FC Seoul). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / FC Seoul away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Suwon City FC and FC Seoul matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Suwon City FC's games and 58% of FC Seoul's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Suwon City FC and FC Seoul matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Suwon City FC's matches and 42% of FC Seoul's.
Do Suwon City FC and FC Seoul matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Suwon City FC's recent matches and 66% of FC Seoul's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Seoul cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Suwon City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Seoul beat Suwon City FC 0-2 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 10, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.40 xG and FC Seoul 1.14 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Suwon City FC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. FC Seoul outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.20 against FC Seoul attack 0.85 / defence 1.00, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 41% | Draw 31% | FC Seoul 28%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual FC Seoul win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 63%, FC Seoul 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Seoul's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.11 PPG, FC Seoul 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Seoul win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Seoul (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.