Suwon Bluewings 2-3 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 67% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC encounter.

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Full Analysis

Suwon World Cup Stadium plays host to Suwon Bluewings versus Ulsan Hyundai FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 21 May 2023 at 10:00 UTC.

Current Form

Suwon Bluewings's overall K League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Suwon Bluewings's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Suwon World Cup Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Ulsan Hyundai FC have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

When travelling in K League 1 this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Suwon Bluewings, 1.70 for Ulsan Hyundai FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Suwon Bluewings have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Suwon Bluewings 2W, Ulsan Hyundai FC 4W, 2D.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2023, ended 1–2 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Suwon Bluewings half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Ulsan Hyundai FC half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon Bluewings 49% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon Bluewings 50% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon Bluewings 0.77 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.818 / defence 1.350 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.229 / defence 0.795. League average goals — home 1.190 / away 1.269. Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence strength of 0.795 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Ulsan Hyundai FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.229 — the away xG of 2.10 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 Suwon Bluewings games / 46 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 12% | Draw 21% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 67%. Fair-value odds: Suwon Bluewings 8.33 | Draw 4.76 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.49. The model has a clear lean to Ulsan Hyundai FC (67%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Suwon Bluewings 60% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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