Suwon Bluewings 4-1 Seongnam FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Suwon Bluewings at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Suwon Bluewings vs Seongnam FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Suwon World Cup Stadium plays host to Suwon Bluewings versus Seongnam FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Sunday 14 August 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Suwon Bluewings's overall K League 1 record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Suwon Bluewings, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Suwon Bluewings's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Suwon World Cup Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Suwon Bluewings are significantly better at Suwon World Cup Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Seongnam FC (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Seongnam FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Seongnam FC have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Suwon Bluewings 3W, Seongnam FC 1W, 1D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2022, ended 1–0 with Suwon Bluewings winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Suwon Bluewings half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Seongnam FC half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon Bluewings 44% versus Seongnam FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon Bluewings 44% | Seongnam FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon Bluewings 0.95 xG and Seongnam FC 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.664 / defence 0.707 | Seongnam FC attack 1.014 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.214. Suwon Bluewings's attack strength of 0.664 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Suwon Bluewings's defence rating of 0.707 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 58 Suwon Bluewings games / 58 Seongnam FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 36% | Draw 33% | Seongnam FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Suwon Bluewings 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Seongnam FC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Suwon Bluewings as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suwon Bluewings if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.82 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Suwon Bluewings 40% | Seongnam FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon Bluewings vs Seongnam FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 36% | Draw 33% | Seongnam FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Suwon Bluewings 0.95 / Seongnam FC 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.664 / def 0.707 | Seongnam FC attack 1.014 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Suwon Bluewings (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Suwon Bluewings xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Seongnam FC xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon Bluewings vs Seongnam FC kick off?
Suwon Bluewings vs Seongnam FC kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon Bluewings vs Seongnam FC?
Suwon Bluewings 4 - 1 Seongnam FC.
Where is Suwon Bluewings vs Seongnam FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon Bluewings vs Seongnam FC part of?
Suwon Bluewings vs Seongnam FC is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon Bluewings vs Seongnam FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon Bluewings a 36% chance of winning, Seongnam FC a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Suwon Bluewings the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon Bluewings vs Seongnam FC?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Suwon Bluewings and Seongnam FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon Bluewings vs Seongnam FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Seongnam FC?
Record (5 meetings): Suwon Bluewings 3W | Draws 1 | Seongnam FC 1W.
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Seongnam FC in?
Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Seongnam FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Suwon Bluewings's attack at 0.66x the league average against Seongnam FC's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Seongnam FC's attack (1.01x) against Suwon Bluewings's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon Bluewings Win
36%
2.81
33%
3.04
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Suwon Bluewings xG
Total xG
1.82
0.87
Seongnam FC xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.80
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
15%
6.71
12%
8.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.3 | 14.2 | 6.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon Bluewings vs Seongnam FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.0%.
How many goals are Suwon Bluewings and Seongnam FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Suwon Bluewings and 0.87 for Seongnam FC, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon Bluewings vs Seongnam FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Suwon Bluewings come into this having played 63 games, going 17W 19D 27L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Suwon Bluewings is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Seongnam FC sit at 0.98 PPG from 63 outings (15W 17D 31L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Seongnam FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Suwon Bluewings against 0.98 for Seongnam FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Suwon Bluewings's home form reads 9W 11D 11L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Seongnam FC have taken 0.84 points per game from 31 outings (6W 8D 17L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Suwon Bluewings are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Seongnam FC are on 0.92 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 63 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon Bluewings
Blended
Seongnam FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Seongnam FC in coming into this match?
Suwon Bluewings have gone 17W 19D 27L in their last 63 games (1.11 PPG), while Seongnam FC have gone 15W 17D 31L in their last 63 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon Bluewings at home or Seongnam FC away?
Suwon Bluewings's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon Bluewings at home: 1.23 PPG; Seongnam FC away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Suwon Bluewings or Seongnam FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon Bluewings have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Seongnam FC in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since March 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Suwon Bluewings go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Suwon Bluewings won 4-1 on 14 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon Bluewings have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Seongnam FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Suwon Bluewings
1
Draws
1
Seongnam FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Seongnam FC?
From 7 meetings on record, Suwon Bluewings have won 5, Seongnam FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Suwon Bluewings and Seongnam FC last play each other?
They last met on 3 October 2022, when Seongnam FC 0-2 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Suwon Bluewings and Seongnam FC?
Suwon Bluewings have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Seongnam FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon Bluewings 48%, Seongnam FC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Suwon Bluewings) and 48% (Seongnam FC).
On the defensive side: Suwon Bluewings keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Suwon Bluewings have failed to score in 32% of games; Seongnam FC in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon Bluewings home games / Seongnam FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon Bluewings play Seongnam FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Suwon Bluewings's recent matches and 48% of Seongnam FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Suwon Bluewings vs Seongnam FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Suwon Bluewings's recent games and 48% of Seongnam FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suwon Bluewings and Seongnam FC tend to score early?
Suwon Bluewings have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Seongnam FC in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Suwon Bluewings run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Seongnam FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon Bluewings beat Seongnam FC 4-1 at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon Bluewings 0.95 xG and Seongnam FC 0.87 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Suwon Bluewings beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon Bluewings attack 0.66 / defence 0.71 against Seongnam FC attack 1.01 / defence 1.02, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon Bluewings 36% | Draw 33% | Seongnam FC 31%, with Suwon Bluewings to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon Bluewings 44%, Seongnam FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Seongnam FC's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon Bluewings 1.11 PPG, Seongnam FC 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon Bluewings win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm. Seongnam FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.