Seongnam FC 1-4 Pohang Steelers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pohang Steelers at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Pohang Steelers travel to Tancheon Sports Complex to take on Seongnam FC. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 5 July 2022, 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Seongnam FC have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Seongnam FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Seongnam FC have posted 0W 4D 6L at Tancheon Sports Complex — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Pohang Steelers — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pohang Steelers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pohang Steelers's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Pohang Steelers's 1.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Seongnam FC's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Seongnam FC, 2 for Pohang Steelers and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.4 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2022, ended 0–1 with Pohang Steelers winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Seongnam FC trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Pohang Steelers trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Seongnam FC 42% versus Pohang Steelers 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Seongnam FC 40% | Pohang Steelers 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Seongnam FC 0.90 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Seongnam FC attack 0.710 / defence 1.362 | Pohang Steelers attack 0.993 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.102. Seongnam FC's attack strength of 0.710 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 52 Seongnam FC games / 52 Pohang Steelers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Seongnam FC 22% | Draw 28% | Pohang Steelers 50%. Fair-value odds: Seongnam FC 4.55 | Draw 3.57 | Pohang Steelers 2.00. Pohang Steelers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pohang Steelers are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pohang Steelers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Seongnam FC 40% | Pohang Steelers 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Tancheon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 Jul 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Seongnam FC 22% | Draw 28% | Pohang Steelers 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Seongnam FC 0.90 / Pohang Steelers 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Seongnam FC attack 0.710 / def 1.362 | Pohang Steelers attack 0.993 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Pohang Steelers (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Seongnam FC xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Pohang Steelers xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers kick off?
Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers kicked off at 11:00 on Tuesday 5 July 2022 at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Seongnam FC 1 - 4 Pohang Steelers.
Where is Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers being played?
The match is being played at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What competition is Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers part of?
Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our statistical model gives Seongnam FC a 22% chance of winning, Pohang Steelers a 50% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Pohang Steelers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Seongnam FC and Pohang Steelers will score (BTTS).
Will Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Pohang Steelers?
Record (5 meetings): Seongnam FC 3W | Draws 0 | Pohang Steelers 2W.
What form are Seongnam FC and Pohang Steelers in?
Seongnam FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Pohang Steelers (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Seongnam FC's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Pohang Steelers's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. The same calculation in reverse, Pohang Steelers's attack versus Seongnam FC's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.1%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pohang Steelers Win
22%
4.57
28%
3.58
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Seongnam FC xG
Total xG
2.39
1.49
Pohang Steelers xG
4.57
22%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
5%
20.30
20%
4.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 13.7 | 10.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Seongnam FC and Pohang Steelers expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Seongnam FC and 1.49 for Pohang Steelers, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Seongnam FC have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 13W 17D 27L record — L-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Seongnam FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pohang Steelers's form line: 20W 16D 21L from 57 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-W. The sample for Pohang Steelers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Seongnam FC on 0.98 PPG, Pohang Steelers on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Seongnam FC have posted 1.14 PPG from 28 outings (8W 8D 12L).
On the road, Pohang Steelers have gone 9W 8D 11L from 28 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Seongnam FC are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Pohang Steelers are on 1.16 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 57 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Seongnam FC
Blended
Pohang Steelers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Seongnam FC and Pohang Steelers in coming into this match?
Seongnam FC have gone 13W 17D 27L in their last 57 games (0.98 PPG), while Pohang Steelers have gone 20W 16D 21L in their last 57 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Seongnam FC at home or Pohang Steelers away?
Pohang Steelers's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Seongnam FC at home: 1.14 PPG; Pohang Steelers away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Jul 2022, when Pohang Steelers won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Seongnam FC's record when hosting Pohang Steelers specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Seongnam FC
1
Draws
3
Pohang Steelers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Pohang Steelers?
From 7 meetings on record, Seongnam FC have won 3, Pohang Steelers have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Seongnam FC and Pohang Steelers last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2022, when Seongnam FC 1-1 Pohang Steelers.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Seongnam FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Pohang Steelers see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Seongnam FC 43%, Pohang Steelers 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Seongnam FC) and 36% (Pohang Steelers).
On the defensive side: Seongnam FC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Seongnam FC have failed to score in 36% of games; Pohang Steelers in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Seongnam FC home games / Pohang Steelers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Seongnam FC play Pohang Steelers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Seongnam FC's recent matches and 50% of Pohang Steelers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Seongnam FC's recent games and 36% of Pohang Steelers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Pohang Steelers run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Seongnam FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pohang Steelers beat Seongnam FC 1-4 at Tancheon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 20, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Seongnam FC 0.90 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.49 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Pohang Steelers outscored their 1.49 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seongnam FC attack 0.71 / defence 1.36 against Pohang Steelers attack 0.99 / defence 1.02, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Seongnam FC 22% | Draw 28% | Pohang Steelers 50%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Seongnam FC 40%, Pohang Steelers 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Seongnam FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Seongnam FC 0.98 PPG, Pohang Steelers 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pohang Steelers win broke the near-deadlock. Seongnam FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.