Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-1 Seongnam FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Seongnam FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Relegation Round - 2 as Gimcheon Sangmu FC welcome Seongnam FC to Gimcheon Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 October 2022 at 08:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Gimcheon Sangmu FC — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record at Gimcheon Stadium: 2W 2D 6L from 10 K League 1 appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Seongnam FC have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Seongnam FC's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
On current form, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, Seongnam FC 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2022, ended 4–1 with Gimcheon Sangmu FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Gimcheon Sangmu FC in-play and half-time data (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Seongnam FC in-play and half-time data (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 56% versus Seongnam FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47% | Seongnam FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.30 xG and Seongnam FC 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.814 / defence 1.051 | Seongnam FC attack 0.765 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.241. Data: 33 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 66 Seongnam FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 43% | Draw 28% | Seongnam FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Seongnam FC 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gimcheon Sangmu FC are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60% | Seongnam FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Seongnam FC | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 43% | Draw 28% | Seongnam FC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.30 / Seongnam FC 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.814 / def 1.051 | Seongnam FC attack 0.765 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Seongnam FC xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Seongnam FC kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Seongnam FC kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Seongnam FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1 - 1 Seongnam FC.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Seongnam FC being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Seongnam FC part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Seongnam FC is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 43% chance of winning, Seongnam FC a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Seongnam FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Seongnam FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Seongnam FC?
Record (3 meetings): Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2W | Draws 1 | Seongnam FC 0W.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Seongnam FC in?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Seongnam FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack at 0.81x the league average against Seongnam FC's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Seongnam FC's attack versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
43%
2.30
28%
3.57
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.30
1.00
Seongnam FC xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
16%
6.25
8%
12.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Seongnam FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.00 for Seongnam FC, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Seongnam FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent record stands at 8W 11D 15L from 34 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-D in the last five.
Seongnam FC, meanwhile, have gone 6W 7D 21L across 34 games — 0.74 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gimcheon Sangmu FC on 1.03 PPG, Seongnam FC on 0.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have managed 4W 4D 8L from 16 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Seongnam FC's away record stands at 3W 2D 11L across 16 trips, a 0.69 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Seongnam FC are on 0.91 scored and 1.85 conceded.
Last 34 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
Seongnam FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Seongnam FC in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 8W 11D 15L in their last 34 games (1.03 PPG), while Seongnam FC have gone 6W 7D 21L in their last 34 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home or Seongnam FC away?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 1.00 PPG; Seongnam FC away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Seongnam FC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2022, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's record when hosting Seongnam FC specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
2
Draws
0
Seongnam FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Seongnam FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, Seongnam FC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Seongnam FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 October 2022, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-1 Seongnam FC.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Seongnam FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Seongnam FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50%, Seongnam FC 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) and 38% (Seongnam FC).
On the defensive side: Seongnam FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Seongnam FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gimcheon Sangmu FC play Seongnam FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent matches and 44% of Seongnam FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Seongnam FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent games and 38% of Seongnam FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Seongnam FC tend to score early?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Seongnam FC in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Seongnam FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gimcheon Stadium, Relegation Round - 2, as Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Seongnam FC drew 1-1 in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.30 xG and Seongnam FC 1.00 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.81 / defence 1.05 against Seongnam FC attack 0.77 / defence 1.14, drawn from 33/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 43% | Draw 28% | Seongnam FC 29%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%, Seongnam FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Seongnam FC's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.03 PPG, Seongnam FC 0.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.