Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3-1 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gimcheon Sangmu FC host Jeju United FC at Gimcheon Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 July 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Gimcheon Sangmu FC — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Gimcheon Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gimcheon Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeju United FC have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jeju United FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jeju United FC away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Jeju United FC — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 3, Jeju United FC 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Gimcheon Sangmu FC in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Jeju United FC in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 44% versus Jeju United FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 44% | Jeju United FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.10 xG and Jeju United FC 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.839 / defence 0.748 | Jeju United FC attack 0.899 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.264. Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence rating of 0.748 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 56 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 40% | Draw 33% | Jeju United FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | Jeju United FC 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gimcheon Sangmu FC are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jeju United FC (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates are neutral: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 30% | Jeju United FC 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Jul 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 40% | Draw 33% | Jeju United FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.10 / Jeju United FC 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.839 / def 0.748 | Jeju United FC attack 0.899 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Jeju United FC xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 26 July 2025 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3 - 1 Jeju United FC.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeju United FC part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 40% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeju United FC?
Record (6 meetings): Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3W | Draws 1 | Jeju United FC 2W.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeju United FC in?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Jeju United FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Jeju United FC's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Jeju United FC's attack versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
40%
2.49
33%
3.06
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
1.95
0.85
Jeju United FC xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
17%
5.82
9%
11.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 12.1 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 0.85 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent record stands at 28W 15D 18L from 61 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Gimcheon Sangmu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jeju United FC, meanwhile, have gone 23W 9D 29L across 61 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Jeju United FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gimcheon Sangmu FC on 1.62 PPG, Jeju United FC on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have managed 16W 7D 7L from 30 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jeju United FC's away record stands at 6W 7D 17L across 30 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jeju United FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gimcheon Sangmu FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.05 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Blended
Jeju United FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 28W 15D 18L in their last 61 games (1.62 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 23W 9D 29L in their last 61 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home or Jeju United FC away?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 1.83 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Gimcheon Sangmu FC or Jeju United FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Jeju United FC in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeju United FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's record when hosting Jeju United FC specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
4
Draws
2
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 4, Jeju United FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Jeju United FC 0-0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeju United FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gimcheon Sangmu FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 37%, Jeju United FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) and 47% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Gimcheon Sangmu FC keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Jeju United FC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gimcheon Sangmu FC play Jeju United FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent matches and 57% of Jeju United FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent games and 47% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeju United FC tend to score early?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Jeju United FC in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Jeju United FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Jeju United FC 3-1 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.10 xG and Jeju United FC 0.85 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.84 / defence 0.75 against Jeju United FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.01, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 40% | Draw 33% | Jeju United FC 27%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 44%, Jeju United FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.62 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gimcheon Sangmu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.