Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-2 Daejeon Citizen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen meet at Gimcheon Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 25 August 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record at Gimcheon Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 K League 1 appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gimcheon Stadium.
Daejeon Citizen (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Daejeon Citizen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Daejeon Citizen away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, 1.20 for Daejeon Citizen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1W, Daejeon Citizen 1W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jun 2024, ended 2–0 with Gimcheon Sangmu FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Gimcheon Sangmu FC — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Daejeon Citizen — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 44% versus Daejeon Citizen 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48% | Daejeon Citizen 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.73 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.101 / defence 0.977 | Daejeon Citizen attack 0.964 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 1.136. Data: 27 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 60 Daejeon Citizen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 53% | Draw 24% | Daejeon Citizen 23%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Daejeon Citizen 4.35. Gimcheon Sangmu FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 40% | Daejeon Citizen 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Aug 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 53% | Draw 24% | Daejeon Citizen 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.73 / Daejeon Citizen 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.101 / def 0.977 | Daejeon Citizen attack 0.964 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.435 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Daejeon Citizen xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 25 August 2024 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2 - 2 Daejeon Citizen.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 53% chance of winning, Daejeon Citizen a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen?
Record (3 meetings): Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1W | Draws 1 | Daejeon Citizen 1W.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen in?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack at 1.10x the league average against Daejeon Citizen's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Daejeon Citizen's attack (0.96x) against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 27/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
53%
1.89
24%
4.21
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.80
1.07
Daejeon Citizen xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
18%
5.51
4%
24.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.3 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.07 for Daejeon Citizen, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent record stands at 13W 7D 7L from 27 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Gimcheon Sangmu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Daejeon Citizen, meanwhile, have gone 6W 9D 12L across 27 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Daejeon Citizen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Gimcheon Sangmu FC by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Daejeon Citizen heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have managed 8W 2D 3L from 13 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daejeon Citizen's away record stands at 1W 5D 7L across 13 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gimcheon Sangmu FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Daejeon Citizen are on 1.04 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Daejeon Citizen in 63%.
Defensively: Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Blended
Daejeon Citizen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 13W 7D 7L in their last 27 games (1.70 PPG), while Daejeon Citizen have gone 6W 9D 12L in their last 27 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home or Daejeon Citizen away?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Daejeon Citizen away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Gimcheon Sangmu FC or Daejeon Citizen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Daejeon Citizen in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Daejeon Citizen won 0-4 on 29 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Daejeon Citizen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
4
Draws
4
Daejeon Citizen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen?
From 10 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, Daejeon Citizen have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3-2 Daejeon Citizen.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen?
Daejeon Citizen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gimcheon Sangmu FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 46%, Daejeon Citizen 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) and 46% (Daejeon Citizen).
On the defensive side: Gimcheon Sangmu FC keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Daejeon Citizen in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Daejeon Citizen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gimcheon Sangmu FC play Daejeon Citizen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's games and 69% of Daejeon Citizen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent games and 46% of Daejeon Citizen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen tend to score early?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Daejeon Citizen in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen finished level at 2-2 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.73 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.07 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Daejeon Citizen outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.10 / defence 0.98 against Daejeon Citizen attack 0.96 / defence 1.09, drawn from 27/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 53% | Draw 24% | Daejeon Citizen 23%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48%, Daejeon Citizen 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Gimcheon Sangmu FC arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.