Pohang Steelers 1-2 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pohang Steelers at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Steelyard Stadium plays host to Pohang Steelers versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Sunday 28 July 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pohang Steelers have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Pohang Steelers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pohang Steelers have posted 4W 6D 0L at Steelyard Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Steelyard Stadium.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Pohang Steelers, 1.70 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Pohang Steelers, 1 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Jun 2024, ended 1–3 with Gimcheon Sangmu FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Pohang Steelers half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games).
Gimcheon Sangmu FC half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pohang Steelers 62% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pohang Steelers 46% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 1.28 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 0.937 / defence 0.804 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.876 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.114. Data: 57 Pohang Steelers games / 24 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 48% | Draw 29% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 4.35. Pohang Steelers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pohang Steelers are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pohang Steelers if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Pohang Steelers 50% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Steelyard Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jul 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 48% | Draw 29% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 39% | xG Pohang Steelers 1.28 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 0.937 / def 0.804 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.876 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Pohang Steelers (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 28 July 2024 at Steelyard Stadium.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Pohang Steelers 1 - 2 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Steelyard Stadium.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 48% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Pohang Steelers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Record (2 meetings): Pohang Steelers 0W | Draws 1 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1W.
What form are Pohang Steelers and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Pohang Steelers (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Pohang Steelers's attack rating (0.94) and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack (0.88x) against Pohang Steelers's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 57/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.4%), 0-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pohang Steelers Win
48%
2.08
29%
3.45
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
2.06
0.78
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
6%
15.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 10.0 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 12.7 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 0.78 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pohang Steelers's recent record stands at 12W 8D 4L from 24 games, a 1.83 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Pohang Steelers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC, meanwhile, have gone 12W 7D 5L across 24 games — 1.79 PPG, with W-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Gimcheon Sangmu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.83 PPG for Pohang Steelers against 1.79 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Pohang Steelers have managed 5W 6D 0L from 11 games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's away record stands at 3W 5D 3L across 11 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.79 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pohang Steelers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pohang Steelers are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pohang Steelers have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Blended
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pohang Steelers and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in coming into this match?
Pohang Steelers have gone 12W 8D 4L in their last 24 games (1.83 PPG), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 12W 7D 5L in their last 24 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pohang Steelers at home or Gimcheon Sangmu FC away?
Pohang Steelers's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pohang Steelers at home: 1.91 PPG; Gimcheon Sangmu FC away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Pohang Steelers or Gimcheon Sangmu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pohang Steelers have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 0-3 on 10 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pohang Steelers have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gimcheon Sangmu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Pohang Steelers
2
Draws
7
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Pohang Steelers have won 1, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Pohang Steelers 0-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Who has won more matches between Pohang Steelers and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pohang Steelers see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pohang Steelers 54%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Pohang Steelers and 36% for Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
On the defensive side: Pohang Steelers keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 36%; Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pohang Steelers play Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Pohang Steelers's recent matches and 46% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Pohang Steelers's recent games and 36% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Gimcheon Sangmu FC defy the odds to beat Pohang Steelers 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Pohang Steelers 1-2 at Steelyard Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.28 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.78 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 0.94 / defence 0.80 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.92, drawn from 57/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 48% | Draw 29% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 23%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Gimcheon Sangmu FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 46%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pohang Steelers 1.83 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gimcheon Sangmu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.