Pohang Steelers 1-2 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pohang Steelers at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Championship Round - 2 sees Jeju United FC travel to Steelyard Stadium to take on Pohang Steelers. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 October 2022, 06:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Pohang Steelers have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Steelyard Stadium, Pohang Steelers have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Pohang Steelers are significantly better at Steelyard Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jeju United FC stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Jeju United FC away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pohang Steelers 1.50 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Pohang Steelers trading profile (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Jeju United FC trading profile (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pohang Steelers 53% versus Jeju United FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pohang Steelers 40% | Jeju United FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 1.59 xG and Jeju United FC 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 1.094 / defence 0.817 | Jeju United FC attack 1.037 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.241. Data: 66 Pohang Steelers games / 66 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 50% | Draw 25% | Jeju United FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Jeju United FC 4.00. Pohang Steelers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pohang Steelers at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pohang Steelers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pohang Steelers 70% | Jeju United FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Steelyard Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 50% | Draw 25% | Jeju United FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Pohang Steelers 1.59 / Jeju United FC 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 1.094 / def 0.817 | Jeju United FC attack 1.037 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Pohang Steelers (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Jeju United FC xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 06:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Steelyard Stadium.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC?
Pohang Steelers 1 - 2 Jeju United FC.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Steelyard Stadium.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC is a Championship Round - 2 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 50% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Pohang Steelers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC in?
Pohang Steelers (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Jeju United FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pohang Steelers's attack rating (1.09) and Jeju United FC's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jeju United FC's attack versus Pohang Steelers's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pohang Steelers Win
50%
2.01
25%
3.99
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
2.64
1.05
Jeju United FC xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
17%
5.74
5%
19.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.9 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 1.05 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pohang Steelers come into this having played 72 games, going 27W 20D 25L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Jeju United FC sit at 1.36 PPG from 72 outings (24W 26D 22L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pohang Steelers on 1.40 PPG, Jeju United FC on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Pohang Steelers's home form reads 14W 10D 11L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.49 PPG return.
Away from home, Jeju United FC have taken 1.37 points per game from 35 outings (12W 12D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Pohang Steelers are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.33 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 72 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Pohang Steelers have gone 27W 20D 25L in their last 72 games (1.40 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 24W 26D 22L in their last 72 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pohang Steelers at home or Jeju United FC away?
Pohang Steelers's home record (1.49 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pohang Steelers at home: 1.49 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jeju United FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Pohang Steelers's record when hosting Jeju United FC specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Pohang Steelers
1
Draws
4
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Pohang Steelers have won 5, Jeju United FC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Jeju United FC 2-1 Pohang Steelers.
Who has won more matches between Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC?
Pohang Steelers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pohang Steelers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pohang Steelers 54%, Jeju United FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Pohang Steelers) and 51% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Pohang Steelers keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Jeju United FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pohang Steelers play Jeju United FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Pohang Steelers's recent matches and 54% of Jeju United FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Pohang Steelers's recent games and 51% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC tend to score early?
Pohang Steelers have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Jeju United FC in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jeju United FC defy the odds to beat Pohang Steelers 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC beat Pohang Steelers 1-2 at Steelyard Stadium, Championship Round - 2, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.59 xG and Jeju United FC 1.05 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Jeju United FC outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 1.09 / defence 0.82 against Jeju United FC attack 1.04 / defence 1.04, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 50% | Draw 25% | Jeju United FC 25%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Jeju United FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 40%, Jeju United FC 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pohang Steelers 1.40 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeju United FC win broke the near-deadlock. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.