Jeonbuk Motors 2-3 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Jeonbuk Motors (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Jeonbuk Motors face Suwon City FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jeonju World Cup Stadium plays host to Jeonbuk Motors versus Suwon City FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024 at 06:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jeonbuk Motors have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jeonbuk Motors have posted 5W 3D 2L at Jeonju World Cup Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Suwon City FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Suwon City FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Jeonbuk Motors's 1.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Suwon City FC's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Jeonbuk Motors 3W, Suwon City FC 1W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Jeonbuk Motors — key trading statistics (76 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Suwon City FC — key trading statistics (76 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 50% versus Suwon City FC 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 38% | Suwon City FC 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.50 xG and Suwon City FC 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.062 / defence 1.223 | Suwon City FC attack 0.968 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.252. Data: 44 Jeonbuk Motors games / 44 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 38% | Draw 26% | Suwon City FC 37%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Suwon City FC 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeonbuk Motors are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Jeonbuk Motors 60% | Suwon City FC 40%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 38% | Draw 26% | Suwon City FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.50 / Suwon City FC 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.062 / def 1.223 | Suwon City FC attack 0.968 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Suwon City FC xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 06:00 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 2 - 3 Suwon City FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 38% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC?
Record (5 meetings): Jeonbuk Motors 3W | Draws 1 | Suwon City FC 1W.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC in?
Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Suwon City FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Jeonbuk Motors's attack at 1.06x the league average against Suwon City FC's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Suwon City FC's attack (0.97x) against Jeonbuk Motors's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
38%
2.66
26%
3.89
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.98
1.48
Suwon City FC xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
9%
11.71
8%
12.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.5 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.3 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 1.48 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jeonbuk Motors's recent record stands at 37W 19D 20L from 76 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Suwon City FC, meanwhile, have gone 22W 18D 36L across 76 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jeonbuk Motors by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Suwon City FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Jeonbuk Motors have managed 17W 12D 7L from 36 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Suwon City FC's away record stands at 8W 9D 19L across 36 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.39 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC in 63%.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 37W 19D 20L in their last 76 games (1.71 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 22W 18D 36L in their last 76 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Suwon City FC away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 1.75 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Jeonbuk Motors or Suwon City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Suwon City FC in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Jeonbuk Motors go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jeonbuk Motors won 0-6 on 14 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Jeonbuk Motors
1
Draws
2
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 7, Suwon City FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Jeonbuk Motors 2-0 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 58%, Suwon City FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Jeonbuk Motors) and 56% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Suwon City FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeonbuk Motors play Suwon City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Jeonbuk Motors's games and 53% of Suwon City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent games and 56% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC tend to score early?
Jeonbuk Motors have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Suwon City FC in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Suwon City FC defy the odds to beat Jeonbuk Motors 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Jeonbuk Motors 2-3 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.50 xG and Suwon City FC 1.48 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Suwon City FC outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.06 / defence 1.22 against Suwon City FC attack 0.97 / defence 0.94, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 38% | Draw 26% | Suwon City FC 37%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Suwon City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 38%, Suwon City FC 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (76 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (76 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Suwon City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.