Jeonbuk Motors 1-0 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jeonju World Cup Stadium plays host to Jeonbuk Motors versus Suwon City FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 16 July 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jeonbuk Motors have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Jeonbuk Motors, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jeonbuk Motors have posted 7W 0D 3L at Jeonju World Cup Stadium — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
Suwon City FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Suwon City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Suwon City FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Jeonbuk Motors's 2.00 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Suwon City FC's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Jeonbuk Motors 2W, Suwon City FC 1W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2023, ended 3–1 with Jeonbuk Motors winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Jeonbuk Motors — key trading statistics (60 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Suwon City FC — key trading statistics (60 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 50% versus Suwon City FC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 42% | Suwon City FC 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 2.55 xG and Suwon City FC 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.102 / defence 0.728 | Suwon City FC attack 1.021 / defence 1.728. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.206. Suwon City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.728 — this is suppressing Jeonbuk Motors's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Jeonbuk Motors's defence rating of 0.728 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Jeonbuk Motors games / 55 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 72% | Draw 19% | Suwon City FC 10%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 1.39 | Draw 5.26 | Suwon City FC 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Jeonbuk Motors (72%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeonbuk Motors are the pick at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.45 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jeonbuk Motors 40% | Suwon City FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jul 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 72% | Draw 19% | Suwon City FC 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 56% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 2.55 / Suwon City FC 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.102 / def 0.728 | Suwon City FC attack 1.021 / def 1.728 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.55
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Suwon City FC xG
56%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 16 July 2023 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 1 - 0 Suwon City FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 72% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 10% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC?
Record (3 meetings): Jeonbuk Motors 2W | Draws 0 | Suwon City FC 1W.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC in?
Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Suwon City FC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Jeonbuk Motors's attack at 1.10x the league average against Suwon City FC's defence at 1.73x — combine the two and it projects 2.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Suwon City FC's attack (1.02x) against Jeonbuk Motors's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 3-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
72%
1.40
19%
5.33
10%
10.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
3 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.55
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
3.45
0.90
Suwon City FC xG
1.40
72%
Home win
5.33
19%
Draw
10.44
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
8%
12.81
Win to Nil
29%
3.42
1%
133.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.1 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.8 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.55 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 0.90 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jeonbuk Motors's recent record stands at 31W 14D 15L from 60 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Jeonbuk Motors is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Suwon City FC, meanwhile, have gone 18W 14D 28L across 60 games — 1.13 PPG, with L-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Suwon City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jeonbuk Motors by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Suwon City FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Jeonbuk Motors have managed 14W 9D 5L from 28 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Suwon City FC's away record stands at 5W 7D 16L across 28 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.37 scored and 1.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC in 62%.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Blended
Suwon City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 31W 14D 15L in their last 60 games (1.78 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 18W 14D 28L in their last 60 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Suwon City FC away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 1.82 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Jeonbuk Motors or Suwon City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Suwon City FC in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Jeonbuk Motors go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jeonbuk Motors won 0-6 on 14 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Jeonbuk Motors
1
Draws
2
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 7, Suwon City FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Jeonbuk Motors 2-0 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 57%, Suwon City FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Jeonbuk Motors) and 57% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Suwon City FC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeonbuk Motors play Suwon City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Jeonbuk Motors's games and 54% of Suwon City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent games and 57% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC tend to score early?
Jeonbuk Motors have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Suwon City FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jeonbuk Motors edge out Suwon City FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Suwon City FC 1-0 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 2.55 xG and Suwon City FC 0.90 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jeonbuk Motors fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Suwon City FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.10 / defence 0.73 against Suwon City FC attack 1.02 / defence 1.73, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 72% | Draw 19% | Suwon City FC 10%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 72%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 42%, Suwon City FC 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (60 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (60 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.