Jeonbuk Motors 2-1 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeonbuk Motors at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Jeju United FC travel to Jeonju World Cup Stadium to take on Jeonbuk Motors. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 September 2024, 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jeonbuk Motors have posted 3W 4D 3L at Jeonju World Cup Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jeju United FC — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Jeju United FC have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Jeonbuk Motors are in the better shape of the two on current K League 1 data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Jeonbuk Motors have won 1, Jeju United FC 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 10 Jul 2024, ended 2–1 with Jeonbuk Motors winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Jeonbuk Motors in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Jeju United FC in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 48% versus Jeju United FC 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 44% | Jeju United FC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.50 xG and Jeju United FC 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.923 / defence 1.030 | Jeju United FC attack 0.723 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.233. Data: 64 Jeonbuk Motors games / 64 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 51% | Draw 26% | Jeju United FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Jeju United FC 4.35. Jeonbuk Motors hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeonbuk Motors are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Jeonbuk Motors 60% | Jeju United FC 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 51% | Draw 26% | Jeju United FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.50 / Jeju United FC 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.923 / def 1.030 | Jeju United FC attack 0.723 / def 1.168 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Jeju United FC xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 2 - 1 Jeju United FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 51% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC?
Record (3 meetings): Jeonbuk Motors 1W | Draws 1 | Jeju United FC 1W.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC in?
Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Jeju United FC (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Jeonbuk Motors's attack rating (0.92) and Jeju United FC's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jeju United FC's attack versus Jeonbuk Motors's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
51%
1.96
26%
3.84
23%
4.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.42
0.92
Jeju United FC xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
4.35
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
5%
19.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.2 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 0.92 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jeonbuk Motors's recent record stands at 24W 19D 26L from 69 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five.
Jeju United FC, meanwhile, have gone 22W 13D 34L across 69 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jeonbuk Motors on 1.32 PPG, Jeju United FC on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Jeonbuk Motors have managed 14W 11D 9L from 34 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jeju United FC's away record stands at 8W 6D 20L across 34 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.04 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 69 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 24W 19D 26L in their last 69 games (1.32 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 22W 13D 34L in their last 69 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Jeju United FC away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 1.56 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Jeonbuk Motors or Jeju United FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Jeju United FC in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Jeonbuk Motors's record when hosting Jeju United FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jeonbuk Motors
4
Draws
3
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 3, Jeju United FC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Jeonbuk Motors 1-3 Jeju United FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jeonbuk Motors are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 62%, Jeju United FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Jeonbuk Motors) and 41% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Jeju United FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeonbuk Motors play Jeju United FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent matches and 47% of Jeju United FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent games and 41% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC tend to score early?
Jeonbuk Motors have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Jeju United FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jeonbuk Motors edge out Jeju United FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Jeju United FC 2-1 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.50 xG and Jeju United FC 0.92 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.92 / defence 1.03 against Jeju United FC attack 0.72 / defence 1.17, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 51% | Draw 26% | Jeju United FC 23%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 44%, Jeju United FC 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeonbuk Motors 1.32 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeonbuk Motors win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.