Jeonbuk Motors 3-1 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeonbuk Motors at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jeonbuk Motors host Daegu FC at Jeonju World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 April 2025 at 08:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Jeonbuk Motors — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jeonbuk Motors have posted 6W 2D 2L at Jeonju World Cup Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Jeonbuk Motors are significantly better at Jeonju World Cup Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Daegu FC have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Daegu FC's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Jeonbuk Motors carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Jeonbuk Motors have won 3, Daegu FC 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 3–1 with Jeonbuk Motors winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Jeonbuk Motors trading profile (78 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Daegu FC trading profile (78 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 50% versus Daegu FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 45% | Daegu FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.51 xG and Daegu FC 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.051 / defence 1.124 | Daegu FC attack 0.921 / defence 1.237. League average goals — home 1.165 / away 1.102. Daegu FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.237 — this is suppressing Jeonbuk Motors's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Jeonbuk Motors games / 42 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 46% | Draw 26% | Daegu FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Daegu FC 3.45. Jeonbuk Motors hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Jeonbuk Motors 50% | Daegu FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Apr 2025, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 46% | Draw 26% | Daegu FC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.51 / Daegu FC 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.051 / def 1.124 | Daegu FC attack 0.921 / def 1.237 | league avg home 1.165 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Daegu FC xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 20 April 2025 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 3 - 1 Daegu FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 46% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC?
Record (7 meetings): Jeonbuk Motors 3W | Draws 1 | Daegu FC 3W.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC in?
Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Daegu FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jeonbuk Motors's attack at 1.05x the league average against Daegu FC's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus Jeonbuk Motors's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
46%
2.18
26%
3.92
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.65
1.14
Daegu FC xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
15%
6.82
6%
15.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.1 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 1.14 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jeonbuk Motors's recent record stands at 28W 21D 29L from 78 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Daegu FC, meanwhile, have gone 23W 27D 28L across 78 games — 1.23 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jeonbuk Motors on 1.35 PPG, Daegu FC on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jeonbuk Motors have managed 17W 12D 10L from 39 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daegu FC's away record stands at 10W 10D 19L across 39 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.19 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 78 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 28W 21D 29L in their last 78 games (1.35 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 23W 27D 28L in their last 78 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Daegu FC away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 1.62 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 August 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jeonbuk Motors go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 May 2025, when Jeonbuk Motors won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jeonbuk Motors's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Jeonbuk Motors
1
Draws
3
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 6, Daegu FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2025, when Jeonbuk Motors 3-0 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jeonbuk Motors are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 62%, Daegu FC 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Jeonbuk Motors) and 44% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Daegu FC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeonbuk Motors play Daegu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Jeonbuk Motors's games and 51% of Daegu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent games and 44% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC tend to score early?
Jeonbuk Motors have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jeonbuk Motors cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Daegu FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Daegu FC 3-1 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.51 xG and Daegu FC 1.14 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Jeonbuk Motors beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.05 / defence 1.12 against Daegu FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.24, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 46% | Draw 26% | Daegu FC 29%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 45%, Daegu FC 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (78 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Daegu FC's trading profile (78 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeonbuk Motors 1.35 PPG, Daegu FC 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeonbuk Motors win broke the near-deadlock. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm. Daegu FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.