Jeju United FC 1-0 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 14 as Jeju United FC welcome Suwon City FC to Jeju World Cup Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 May 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeju United FC have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Jeju United FC's home record at Jeju World Cup Stadium: 2W 4D 4L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
Suwon City FC — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Suwon City FC have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jeju United FC at 0.70 PPG versus Suwon City FC's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Jeju United FC, 1 for Suwon City FC and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with Suwon City FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Jeju United FC trading profile (76 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Suwon City FC trading profile (76 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 57% versus Suwon City FC 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 54% | Suwon City FC 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.23 xG and Suwon City FC 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 0.854 / defence 1.041 | Suwon City FC attack 1.074 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.255. Data: 46 Jeju United FC games / 46 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 33% | Draw 26% | Suwon City FC 41%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Suwon City FC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Suwon City FC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Jeju United FC 40% | Suwon City FC 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 33% | Draw 26% | Suwon City FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Jeju United FC 1.23 / Suwon City FC 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 0.854 / def 1.041 | Suwon City FC attack 1.074 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.433 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Suwon City FC xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC?
Jeju United FC 1 - 0 Suwon City FC.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC part of?
Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 33% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC?
Record (4 meetings): Jeju United FC 2W | Draws 1 | Suwon City FC 1W.
What form are Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Suwon City FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Jeju United FC's attack at 0.85x the league average against Suwon City FC's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon City FC's attack versus Jeju United FC's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
33%
3.05
26%
3.80
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
2.63
1.40
Suwon City FC xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
8%
12.40
12%
8.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.1 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.4 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.40 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jeju United FC's recent record stands at 24W 21D 31L from 76 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-D in the last five.
Suwon City FC, meanwhile, have gone 22W 18D 36L across 76 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jeju United FC on 1.22 PPG, Suwon City FC on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Jeju United FC have managed 10W 13D 13L from 36 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Suwon City FC's away record stands at 8W 9D 19L across 36 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.39 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC in 63%.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 24W 21D 31L in their last 76 games (1.22 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 22W 18D 36L in their last 76 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or Suwon City FC away?
Jeju United FC's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.19 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 25 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2023, when Jeju United FC won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jeju United FC's record when hosting Suwon City FC specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Jeju United FC
1
Draws
3
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 6, Suwon City FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-2 Jeju United FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC?
Jeju United FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 58%, Suwon City FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Jeju United FC) and 56% (Suwon City FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Jeju United FC have failed to score in 28% of games; Suwon City FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeju United FC play Suwon City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Jeju United FC's games and 53% of Suwon City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Jeju United FC's matches and 56% of Suwon City FC's.
Do Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC tend to score early?
Jeju United FC have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Suwon City FC in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jeju United FC defy the odds to beat Suwon City FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC beat Suwon City FC 1-0 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.23 xG and Suwon City FC 1.40 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Suwon City FC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.04 against Suwon City FC attack 1.07 / defence 1.00, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 33% | Draw 26% | Suwon City FC 41%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Jeju United FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 54%, Suwon City FC 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (76 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (76 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.22 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeju United FC win broke the near-deadlock. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.