Jeju United FC 1-2 Seongnam FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jeju United FC at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jeju United FC vs Seongnam FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jeju United FC and Seongnam FC meet at Jeju World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 2 August 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Jeju United FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jeju United FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Jeju United FC have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jeju World Cup Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Jeju United FC are significantly better at Jeju World Cup Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Seongnam FC (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Seongnam FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Seongnam FC's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Jeju United FC against 0.90 for Seongnam FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Jeju United FC have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 5 meetings, with Seongnam FC managing just 0 victories and 2 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Jul 2022, ended 3–2 with Jeju United FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Jeju United FC and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Jeju United FC half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Seongnam FC half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 56% versus Seongnam FC 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 51% | Seongnam FC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.62 xG and Seongnam FC 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 1.080 / defence 1.010 | Seongnam FC attack 0.946 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.182. Data: 56 Jeju United FC games / 56 Seongnam FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 49% | Draw 25% | Seongnam FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Seongnam FC 3.85. Jeju United FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jeju United FC as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Jeju United FC 50% | Seongnam FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Seongnam FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Aug 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 49% | Draw 25% | Seongnam FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Jeju United FC 1.62 / Seongnam FC 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 1.080 / def 1.010 | Seongnam FC attack 0.946 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Seongnam FC xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Seongnam FC kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Seongnam FC kicked off at 11:30 on Tuesday 2 August 2022 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Seongnam FC?
Jeju United FC 1 - 2 Seongnam FC.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Seongnam FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Seongnam FC part of?
Jeju United FC vs Seongnam FC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 49% chance of winning, Seongnam FC a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Jeju United FC and Seongnam FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Seongnam FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Seongnam FC?
Record (5 meetings): Jeju United FC 3W | Draws 2 | Seongnam FC 0W.
What form are Jeju United FC and Seongnam FC in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Seongnam FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Jeju United FC's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Seongnam FC's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. Flip it around — Seongnam FC's attack (0.95x) against Jeju United FC's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
49%
2.06
25%
3.99
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
2.75
1.13
Seongnam FC xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
16%
6.37
5%
19.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.7 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Seongnam FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.13 for Seongnam FC, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Seongnam FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 61 outings, Jeju United FC have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 21W 23D 17L record — D-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Jeju United FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Seongnam FC's form line: 14W 17D 30L from 61 games, 0.97 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Seongnam FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Jeju United FC are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Seongnam FC.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Jeju United FC have posted 1.52 PPG from 29 outings (11W 11D 7L).
On the road, Seongnam FC have gone 5W 8D 16L from 29 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeju United FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Seongnam FC are on 0.90 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 61 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Blended
Seongnam FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeju United FC and Seongnam FC in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 21W 23D 17L in their last 61 games (1.41 PPG), while Seongnam FC have gone 14W 17D 30L in their last 61 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or Seongnam FC away?
Jeju United FC's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.52 PPG; Seongnam FC away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Jeju United FC or Seongnam FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeju United FC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Seongnam FC in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since March 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeju United FC have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Seongnam FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Jeju United FC
2
Draws
1
Seongnam FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Seongnam FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 3, Seongnam FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Seongnam FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2022, when Jeju United FC 1-2 Seongnam FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Seongnam FC?
Jeju United FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Seongnam FC see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 62%, Seongnam FC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Jeju United FC) and 48% (Seongnam FC).
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Seongnam FC in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Seongnam FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeju United FC play Seongnam FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Jeju United FC's games and 48% of Seongnam FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeju United FC vs Seongnam FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Jeju United FC's recent games and 48% of Seongnam FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeju United FC and Seongnam FC tend to score early?
Jeju United FC have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Seongnam FC in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Seongnam FC defy the odds to beat Jeju United FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Seongnam FC beat Jeju United FC 1-2 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.62 xG and Seongnam FC 1.13 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Seongnam FC outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 1.08 / defence 1.01 against Seongnam FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.13, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 49% | Draw 25% | Seongnam FC 26%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Seongnam FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 51%, Seongnam FC 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Seongnam FC's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeju United FC arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Seongnam FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Seongnam FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.