Jeju United FC 1-0 FC Seoul – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Seoul at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 28 as Jeju United FC welcome FC Seoul to Jeju World Cup Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 August 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeju United FC have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jeju United FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jeju United FC's home record at Jeju World Cup Stadium: 2W 4D 4L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Seoul stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Seoul, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, FC Seoul have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Jeju United FC) versus 1.00 (FC Seoul). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Jeju United FC trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 92% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
FC Seoul trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 64% versus FC Seoul 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 48% | FC Seoul 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.20 xG and FC Seoul 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 1.006 / defence 1.567 | FC Seoul attack 0.880 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.010 / away 1.130. Data: 25 Jeju United FC games / 25 FC Seoul games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 29% | Draw 26% | FC Seoul 45%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | FC Seoul 2.22. FC Seoul hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Seoul as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Seoul offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jeju United FC 100% | FC Seoul 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 29% | Draw 26% | FC Seoul 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Jeju United FC 1.20 / FC Seoul 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 1.006 / def 1.567 | FC Seoul attack 0.880 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.010 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: FC Seoul (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.56
FC Seoul xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul kick off?
Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul?
Jeju United FC 1 - 0 FC Seoul.
Where is Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul part of?
Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 29% chance of winning, FC Seoul a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Seoul the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Jeju United FC and FC Seoul will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and FC Seoul?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeju United FC and FC Seoul in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. FC Seoul (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jeju United FC's attack at 1.01x the league average against FC Seoul's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Seoul's attack versus Jeju United FC's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Seoul Win
29%
3.48
26%
3.84
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
2.75
1.56
FC Seoul xG
3.48
29%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
6%
16.49
14%
7.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.9 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and FC Seoul expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.56 for FC Seoul, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jeju United FC's recent record stands at 5W 13D 7L from 25 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Jeju United FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Seoul, meanwhile, have gone 6W 7D 12L across 25 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for FC Seoul is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jeju United FC on 1.12 PPG, FC Seoul on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jeju United FC have managed 3W 5D 4L from 12 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Seoul's away record stands at 3W 4D 5L across 12 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; FC Seoul are on 0.96 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jeju United FC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Blended
FC Seoul
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeju United FC and FC Seoul in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 5W 13D 7L in their last 25 games (1.12 PPG), while FC Seoul have gone 6W 7D 12L in their last 25 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or FC Seoul away?
Jeju United FC's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.17 PPG; FC Seoul away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Jeju United FC or FC Seoul been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeju United FC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, FC Seoul in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jeju United FC and FC Seoul runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jeju United FC's record when hosting FC Seoul specifically: 4W 1D 2L from 7 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jeju United FC
1
Draws
4
FC Seoul
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and FC Seoul?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 5, FC Seoul have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and FC Seoul last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Jeju United FC 2-1 FC Seoul.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and FC Seoul?
Jeju United FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
FC Seoul see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jeju United FC at 92%, FC Seoul at 58%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Jeju United FC) and 33% (FC Seoul).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / FC Seoul away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeju United FC play FC Seoul?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 92% of Jeju United FC's games and 58% of FC Seoul's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Jeju United FC's recent games and 33% of FC Seoul's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeju United FC and FC Seoul tend to score early?
Jeju United FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC Seoul in 42% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jeju United FC defy the odds to beat FC Seoul 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC beat FC Seoul 1-0 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.20 xG and FC Seoul 1.56 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Seoul landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 1.01 / defence 1.57 against FC Seoul attack 0.88 / defence 1.18, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 29% | Draw 26% | FC Seoul 45%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Jeju United FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 48%, FC Seoul 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Seoul's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.12 PPG, FC Seoul 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeju United FC win broke the near-deadlock. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. FC Seoul (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.