Jeju United FC 2-0 FC Anyang – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Anyang at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jeju United FC host FC Anyang at Jeju World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 August 2026 at 10:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeju United FC have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jeju United FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jeju United FC's home record at Jeju World Cup Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Anyang — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC Anyang, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Anyang's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Jeju United FC) versus 1.50 (FC Anyang). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jeju United FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, FC Anyang in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, FC Anyang have the better historical record — 5 wins from 6 previous contests against 1 for Jeju United FC.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 1–2 with FC Anyang winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. FC Anyang have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Jeju United FC in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
FC Anyang in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jeju United FC 55% and FC Anyang 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 42% | FC Anyang 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.33 xG and FC Anyang 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 1.099 / defence 1.014 | FC Anyang attack 1.101 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.057 / away 1.312. Data: 55 Jeju United FC games / 55 FC Anyang games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 31% | Draw 31% | FC Anyang 37%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | FC Anyang 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.33 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Anyang at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Anyang offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jeju United FC 60% | FC Anyang 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Aug 2026, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 31% | Draw 31% | FC Anyang 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 60% | xG Jeju United FC 1.33 / FC Anyang 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 1.099 / def 1.014 | FC Anyang attack 1.101 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.057 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: FC Anyang (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.47
FC Anyang xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang kick off?
Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 15 August 2026 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang?
Jeju United FC 2 - 0 FC Anyang.
Where is Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang part of?
Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 31% chance of winning, FC Anyang a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC Anyang the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Jeju United FC and FC Anyang will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and FC Anyang?
Record (6 meetings): Jeju United FC 1W | Draws 0 | FC Anyang 5W.
What form are Jeju United FC and FC Anyang in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. FC Anyang (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Jeju United FC's attack at 1.10x the league average against FC Anyang's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Anyang's attack versus Jeju United FC's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Anyang Win
31%
3.19
31%
3.18
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
2.80
1.47
FC Anyang xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
7%
13.83
10%
10.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.9 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and FC Anyang expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.47 for FC Anyang, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jeju United FC come into this having played 60 games, going 19W 16D 25L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-W. The sample for Jeju United FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Anyang sit at 1.32 PPG from 60 outings (21W 16D 23L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for FC Anyang is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jeju United FC on 1.22 PPG, FC Anyang on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Jeju United FC's home form reads 9W 9D 11L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Anyang have taken 1.28 points per game from 29 outings (10W 7D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; FC Anyang are on 1.32 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Anyang in 67%.
Last 60 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Blended
FC Anyang
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeju United FC and FC Anyang in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 19W 16D 25L in their last 60 games (1.22 PPG), while FC Anyang have gone 21W 16D 23L in their last 60 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or FC Anyang away?
FC Anyang's away record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.24 PPG; FC Anyang away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Jeju United FC's record when hosting FC Anyang specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Jeju United FC
0
Draws
5
FC Anyang
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and FC Anyang?
From 7 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 2, FC Anyang have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and FC Anyang last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Jeju United FC 2-0 FC Anyang.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and FC Anyang?
FC Anyang have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC Anyang are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 52%, FC Anyang 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Jeju United FC) and 55% (FC Anyang).
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Jeju United FC have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / FC Anyang away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeju United FC play FC Anyang?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Jeju United FC's games and 69% of FC Anyang's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Jeju United FC's recent games and 55% of FC Anyang's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeju United FC and FC Anyang tend to score early?
Jeju United FC have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, FC Anyang in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jeju United FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Anyang.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC beat FC Anyang 2-0 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.33 xG and FC Anyang 1.47 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC Anyang landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 1.10 / defence 1.01 against FC Anyang attack 1.10 / defence 1.15, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 31% | Draw 31% | FC Anyang 37%, with FC Anyang to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Jeju United FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 42%, FC Anyang 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Anyang's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.22 PPG, FC Anyang 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeju United FC win broke the near-deadlock. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. FC Anyang (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.