Incheon United 3-1 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Jeonbuk Motors travel to Sungui Arena Park to take on Incheon United. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 August 2022, 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Incheon United have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Incheon United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Incheon United's home record at Sungui Arena Park: 3W 4D 3L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Jeonbuk Motors — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jeonbuk Motors, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jeonbuk Motors away from home this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 away games — 2.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.70 exceeds their overall 2.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Jeonbuk Motors are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Incheon United in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Jeonbuk Motors in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Incheon United 49% versus Jeonbuk Motors 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Incheon United 40% | Jeonbuk Motors 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 0.82 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.974 / defence 0.906 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.055 / defence 0.639. League average goals — home 1.322 / away 1.234. Jeonbuk Motors's defence strength of 0.639 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 58 Incheon United games / 59 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Incheon United 25% | Draw 31% | Jeonbuk Motors 44%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 4.00 | Draw 3.23 | Jeonbuk Motors 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Incheon United 50% | Jeonbuk Motors 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 25% | Draw 31% | Jeonbuk Motors 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Incheon United 0.82 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 0.974 / def 0.906 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.055 / def 0.639 | league avg home 1.322 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Jeonbuk Motors xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Incheon United 3 - 1 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 25% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Incheon United (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Incheon United's attack rating (0.97) and Jeonbuk Motors's defence rating (0.64), the model arrives at 0.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jeonbuk Motors's attack versus Incheon United's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
25%
3.98
31%
3.22
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Incheon United xG
Total xG
2.00
1.18
Jeonbuk Motors xG
3.98
25%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
8%
12.95
19%
5.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 15.9 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Incheon United and 1.18 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Incheon United come into this having played 63 games, going 21W 21D 21L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-W. The sample for Incheon United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jeonbuk Motors sit at 1.94 PPG from 63 outings (35W 17D 11L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Jeonbuk Motors is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jeonbuk Motors carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Incheon United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Incheon United's home form reads 11W 11D 9L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Jeonbuk Motors have taken 2.06 points per game from 31 outings (19W 7D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Incheon United are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Jeonbuk Motors are on 1.62 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Blended
Jeonbuk Motors
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors in coming into this match?
Incheon United have gone 21W 21D 21L in their last 63 games (1.33 PPG), while Jeonbuk Motors have gone 35W 17D 11L in their last 63 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Incheon United at home or Jeonbuk Motors away?
Jeonbuk Motors's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Incheon United at home: 1.42 PPG; Jeonbuk Motors away: 2.06 PPG.
Have Incheon United or Jeonbuk Motors been keeping clean sheets recently?
Incheon United have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Jeonbuk Motors in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Incheon United have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 May 2024, when Incheon United won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Incheon United's record when hosting Jeonbuk Motors specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Incheon United
4
Draws
3
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Incheon United have won 3, Jeonbuk Motors have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Incheon United 1-0 Jeonbuk Motors.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Incheon United see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Incheon United 39%, Jeonbuk Motors 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 26% for Incheon United and 42% for Jeonbuk Motors.
On the defensive side: Incheon United keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Jeonbuk Motors in 45%; Incheon United have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Incheon United play Jeonbuk Motors?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Incheon United's recent matches and 45% of Jeonbuk Motors's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Incheon United's recent games and 42% of Jeonbuk Motors's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Incheon United cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Jeonbuk Motors.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Incheon United beat Jeonbuk Motors 3-1 at Sungui Arena Park, Regular Season - 28, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 0.82 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.18 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Incheon United beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 0.97 / defence 0.91 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.05 / defence 0.64, drawn from 58/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 25% | Draw 31% | Jeonbuk Motors 44%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Incheon United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Incheon United 40%, Jeonbuk Motors 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Incheon United's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Incheon United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Incheon United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.