Incheon United 1-1 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Jeonbuk Motors at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Jeonbuk Motors travel to Sungui Arena Park to take on Incheon United. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 May 2021, 06:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 0.85 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.899 / defence 1.013 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.960 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 0.970 / away 1.145. Data: 17 Incheon United games / 16 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Incheon United 26% | Draw 35% | Jeonbuk Motors 39%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 3.85 | Draw 2.86 | Jeonbuk Motors 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Saturday 29 May 2021, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 26% | Draw 35% | Jeonbuk Motors 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 41% | xG Incheon United 0.85 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 0.899 / def 1.013 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.960 / def 0.979 | league avg home 0.970 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Jeonbuk Motors xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 06:00 on Saturday 29 May 2021 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Incheon United 1 - 1 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 26% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 39% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Incheon United's attack rating (0.90) and Jeonbuk Motors's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jeonbuk Motors's attack versus Incheon United's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
26%
3.89
35%
2.85
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Incheon United xG
Total xG
1.97
1.11
Jeonbuk Motors xG
3.89
26%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
8%
11.86
17%
5.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 15.6 | 8.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Incheon United and 1.11 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Pre-Season
Jeonbuk Motors
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Incheon United have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 May 2024, when Incheon United won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Incheon United's record when hosting Jeonbuk Motors specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Incheon United
4
Draws
3
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Incheon United have won 3, Jeonbuk Motors have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Incheon United 1-0 Jeonbuk Motors.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sungui Arena Park, Regular Season - 19, as Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors drew 1-1 in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 0.85 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.11 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 0.90 / defence 1.01 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.96 / defence 0.98, drawn from 17/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 26% | Draw 35% | Jeonbuk Motors 39%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.