Incheon United 0-1 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Incheon United at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Jeonbuk Motors travel to Sungui Arena Park to take on Incheon United. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 August 2024, 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Incheon United have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Incheon United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Incheon United's home record at Sungui Arena Park: 1W 4D 5L from 10 K League 1 appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jeonbuk Motors — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jeonbuk Motors, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jeonbuk Motors away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Incheon United 0.80 PPG, Jeonbuk Motors 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Incheon United have won 1, Jeonbuk Motors 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jun 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Incheon United in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Jeonbuk Motors in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Incheon United 49% versus Jeonbuk Motors 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Incheon United 38% | Jeonbuk Motors 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 1.38 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.742 / defence 1.148 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.919 / defence 1.289. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.151. Incheon United's attack strength of 0.742 is below the league average — the 1.38 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Jeonbuk Motors bring a strong defensive rating of 1.289 — this is suppressing Incheon United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Incheon United games / 60 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Incheon United 41% | Draw 26% | Jeonbuk Motors 33%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Jeonbuk Motors 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Incheon United as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Incheon United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Incheon United 70% | Jeonbuk Motors 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 41% | Draw 26% | Jeonbuk Motors 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Incheon United 1.38 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 0.742 / def 1.148 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.919 / def 1.289 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Incheon United (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Jeonbuk Motors xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Incheon United 0 - 1 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 41% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Incheon United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors?
Record (5 meetings): Incheon United 1W | Draws 3 | Jeonbuk Motors 1W.
What form are Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Incheon United (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Incheon United's attack rating (0.74) and Jeonbuk Motors's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jeonbuk Motors's attack versus Incheon United's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Incheon United Win
41%
2.45
26%
3.80
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Incheon United xG
Total xG
2.60
1.22
Jeonbuk Motors xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
12%
8.27
8%
12.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.5 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Incheon United and 1.22 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Incheon United come into this having played 65 games, going 20W 24D 21L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Incheon United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jeonbuk Motors sit at 1.28 PPG from 65 outings (22W 17D 26L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Jeonbuk Motors is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Incheon United on 1.29 PPG, Jeonbuk Motors on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Incheon United's home form reads 9W 12D 11L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Jeonbuk Motors have taken 0.97 points per game from 32 outings (8W 7D 17L).
Goals in Recent Form
Incheon United are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Jeonbuk Motors are on 1.20 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 65 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Blended
Jeonbuk Motors
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors in coming into this match?
Incheon United have gone 20W 24D 21L in their last 65 games (1.29 PPG), while Jeonbuk Motors have gone 22W 17D 26L in their last 65 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Incheon United at home or Jeonbuk Motors away?
Incheon United's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Incheon United at home: 1.22 PPG; Jeonbuk Motors away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Incheon United or Jeonbuk Motors been keeping clean sheets recently?
Incheon United have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Jeonbuk Motors in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 May 2024, when Incheon United won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Incheon United's record when hosting Jeonbuk Motors specifically: 2W 3D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Incheon United
5
Draws
2
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Incheon United have won 3, Jeonbuk Motors have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Incheon United 1-1 Jeonbuk Motors.
Who has won more matches between Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors?
Incheon United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Incheon United see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Jeonbuk Motors are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Incheon United 50%, Jeonbuk Motors 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Incheon United) and 44% (Jeonbuk Motors).
On the defensive side: Incheon United have failed to score in 31% of games; Jeonbuk Motors in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Incheon United play Jeonbuk Motors?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Incheon United's recent matches and 38% of Jeonbuk Motors's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Incheon United's recent games and 44% of Jeonbuk Motors's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors tend to score early?
Incheon United have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Jeonbuk Motors in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jeonbuk Motors defy the odds to beat Incheon United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Incheon United 0-1 at Sungui Arena Park, Regular Season - 28, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 1.38 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.22 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Incheon United fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 0.74 / defence 1.15 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.92 / defence 1.29, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 41% | Draw 26% | Jeonbuk Motors 33%, with Incheon United to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Jeonbuk Motors win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Incheon United 38%, Jeonbuk Motors 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Incheon United's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Incheon United 1.29 PPG, Jeonbuk Motors 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeonbuk Motors win broke the near-deadlock. Incheon United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.