Incheon United 3-1 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Incheon United at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Incheon United vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Incheon United and Jeju United FC meet at Sungui Arena Park in K League 1, Championship Round - 3. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 11 October 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Incheon United (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Incheon United have posted 4W 3D 3L at Sungui Arena Park — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Jeju United FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Jeju United FC's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Incheon United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Jeju United FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Incheon United 47% versus Jeju United FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Incheon United 38% | Jeju United FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 1.32 xG and Jeju United FC 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.909 / defence 0.748 | Jeju United FC attack 1.036 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.241. Incheon United's defence rating of 0.748 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 66 Incheon United games / 66 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Incheon United 45% | Draw 28% | Jeju United FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Jeju United FC 3.70. Incheon United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Incheon United as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Incheon United if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Incheon United 40% | Jeju United FC 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Championship Round - 3 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 11 Oct 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 45% | Draw 28% | Jeju United FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Incheon United 1.32 / Jeju United FC 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 0.909 / def 0.748 | Jeju United FC attack 1.036 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Incheon United (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Jeju United FC xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Incheon United vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Incheon United vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 11:30 on Tuesday 11 October 2022 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs Jeju United FC?
Incheon United 3 - 1 Jeju United FC.
Where is Incheon United vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs Jeju United FC part of?
Incheon United vs Jeju United FC is a Championship Round - 3 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 45% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Incheon United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Incheon United and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Incheon United vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Jeju United FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Incheon United and Jeju United FC in?
Incheon United (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Jeju United FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Incheon United's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Jeju United FC's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Jeju United FC's attack (1.04x) against Incheon United's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Incheon United Win
45%
2.23
28%
3.58
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Incheon United xG
Total xG
2.28
0.96
Jeju United FC xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
17%
5.83
7%
13.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.0 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Incheon United and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Incheon United and 0.96 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 73 outings, Incheon United have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 24W 25D 24L record — D-D-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Jeju United FC's form line: 25W 26D 22L from 73 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Incheon United against 1.38 for Jeju United FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Incheon United have posted 1.42 PPG from 36 outings (13W 12D 11L).
On the road, Jeju United FC have gone 13W 12D 11L from 36 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Incheon United are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.34 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 73 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Incheon United and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Incheon United have gone 24W 25D 24L in their last 73 games (1.33 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 25W 26D 22L in their last 73 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Incheon United at home or Jeju United FC away?
Incheon United's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Incheon United at home: 1.42 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Incheon United or Jeju United FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Incheon United have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Jeju United FC in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Incheon United have gone 4W 0D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Jeju United FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Incheon United
1
Draws
4
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Incheon United have won 5, Jeju United FC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Jeju United FC 3-3 Incheon United.
Who has won more matches between Incheon United and Jeju United FC?
Incheon United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Incheon United see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Incheon United 36%, Jeju United FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Incheon United) and 53% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Incheon United keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Incheon United have failed to score in 42% of games; Jeju United FC in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Incheon United play Jeju United FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Incheon United's recent matches and 56% of Jeju United FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Incheon United vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Incheon United's recent games and 53% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Incheon United cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Jeju United FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Incheon United beat Jeju United FC 3-1 at Sungui Arena Park, Championship Round - 3, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 1.32 xG and Jeju United FC 0.96 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Incheon United beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 0.91 / defence 0.75 against Jeju United FC attack 1.04 / defence 1.04, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 45% | Draw 28% | Jeju United FC 27%, with Incheon United to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Incheon United 38%, Jeju United FC 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Incheon United's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Incheon United 1.33 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Incheon United win broke the near-deadlock. Incheon United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.