Gwangju FC 1-0 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Suwon City FC travel to Gwangju Football Stadium to take on Gwangju FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 July 2024, 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Gwangju FC have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Gwangju FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gwangju FC's home record at Gwangju Football Stadium: 4W 0D 6L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Suwon City FC stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 K League 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Suwon City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Suwon City FC are 0.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Gwangju FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Suwon City FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Gwangju FC, 2 for Suwon City FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 25 Jun 2024, ended 0–1 with Suwon City FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Gwangju FC in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Suwon City FC in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gwangju FC 44% versus Suwon City FC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gwangju FC 39% | Suwon City FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gwangju FC 1.41 xG and Suwon City FC 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gwangju FC attack 0.905 / defence 1.163 | Suwon City FC attack 1.298 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.140. Suwon City FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.298 — the away xG of 1.72 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Gwangju FC games / 57 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gwangju FC 32% | Draw 23% | Suwon City FC 45%. Fair-value odds: Gwangju FC 3.12 | Draw 4.35 | Suwon City FC 2.22. Suwon City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Suwon City FC at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gwangju FC 60% | Suwon City FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Gwangju Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jul 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gwangju FC 32% | Draw 23% | Suwon City FC 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Gwangju FC 1.41 / Suwon City FC 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Gwangju FC attack 0.905 / def 1.163 | Suwon City FC attack 1.298 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Gwangju FC xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Suwon City FC xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 27 July 2024 at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC?
Gwangju FC 1 - 0 Suwon City FC.
Where is Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What competition is Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC part of?
Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Gwangju FC a 32% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 45% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Gwangju FC and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Suwon City FC?
Record (5 meetings): Gwangju FC 3W | Draws 0 | Suwon City FC 2W.
What form are Gwangju FC and Suwon City FC in?
Gwangju FC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Suwon City FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gwangju FC's attack rating (0.91) and Suwon City FC's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon City FC's attack versus Gwangju FC's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
32%
3.16
23%
4.27
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Gwangju FC xG
Total xG
3.13
1.72
Suwon City FC xG
3.16
32%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
18%
5.58
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
6%
17.63
11%
9.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.6 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Gwangju FC and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Gwangju FC and 1.72 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 62 outings, Gwangju FC have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 26W 12D 24L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Gwangju FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Suwon City FC's form line: 21W 13D 28L from 62 games, 1.23 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W. The sample for Suwon City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gwangju FC on 1.45 PPG, Suwon City FC on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gwangju FC have posted 1.58 PPG from 31 outings (15W 4D 12L).
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 10W 5D 16L from 31 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gwangju FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gwangju FC are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.34 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC in 61%.
Last 62 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gwangju FC
Blended
Suwon City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gwangju FC and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Gwangju FC have gone 26W 12D 24L in their last 62 games (1.45 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 21W 13D 28L in their last 62 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gwangju FC at home or Suwon City FC away?
Gwangju FC's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gwangju FC at home: 1.58 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Gwangju FC or Suwon City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gwangju FC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Suwon City FC in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gwangju FC and Suwon City FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gwangju FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Gwangju FC's record when hosting Suwon City FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Gwangju FC
1
Draws
3
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gwangju FC have won 6, Suwon City FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gwangju FC and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Suwon City FC 0-1 Gwangju FC.
Who has won more matches between Gwangju FC and Suwon City FC?
Gwangju FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gwangju FC 32%, Suwon City FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Gwangju FC) and 61% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Gwangju FC keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Gwangju FC have failed to score in 39% of games; Suwon City FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gwangju FC home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gwangju FC play Suwon City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Gwangju FC's recent matches and 58% of Suwon City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Gwangju FC's recent games and 61% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gwangju FC and Suwon City FC tend to score early?
Gwangju FC have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Suwon City FC in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gwangju FC defy the odds to beat Suwon City FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gwangju FC beat Suwon City FC 1-0 at Gwangju Football Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 1.41 xG and Suwon City FC 1.72 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Suwon City FC landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.16 against Suwon City FC attack 1.30 / defence 1.04, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 32% | Draw 23% | Suwon City FC 45%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Gwangju FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gwangju FC 39%, Suwon City FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gwangju FC's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gwangju FC 1.45 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gwangju FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.