Gwangju FC 2-5 FC Anyang – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Anyang at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 10 as Gwangju FC welcome FC Anyang to Gwangju Football Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 April 2026 at 07:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Gwangju FC have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gwangju FC have posted 4W 2D 4L at Gwangju Football Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Anyang stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, FC Anyang have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Gwangju FC) versus 1.60 (FC Anyang). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
Gwangju FC hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for FC Anyang, with 1 draws in between.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 1–0 with Gwangju FC winning.
The historical record gives Gwangju FC a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Gwangju FC trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
FC Anyang trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gwangju FC 42% versus FC Anyang 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gwangju FC 37% | FC Anyang 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gwangju FC 1.00 xG and FC Anyang 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gwangju FC attack 0.926 / defence 1.005 | FC Anyang attack 0.922 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.171. Data: 42 Gwangju FC games / 42 FC Anyang games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gwangju FC 31% | Draw 34% | FC Anyang 35%. Fair-value odds: Gwangju FC 3.23 | Draw 2.94 | FC Anyang 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Anyang at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Anyang offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Gwangju FC 50% | FC Anyang 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Gwangju Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Apr 2026, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gwangju FC 31% | Draw 34% | FC Anyang 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Gwangju FC 1.00 / FC Anyang 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Gwangju FC attack 0.926 / def 1.005 | FC Anyang attack 0.922 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: FC Anyang (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Gwangju FC xG
Expected Goals
1.08
FC Anyang xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang kick off?
Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang?
Gwangju FC 2 - 5 FC Anyang.
Where is Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang being played?
The match is being played at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What competition is Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang part of?
Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang?
Our statistical model gives Gwangju FC a 31% chance of winning, FC Anyang a 35% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making FC Anyang the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Gwangju FC and FC Anyang will score (BTTS).
Will Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and FC Anyang?
Record (4 meetings): Gwangju FC 3W | Draws 1 | FC Anyang 0W.
What form are Gwangju FC and FC Anyang in?
Gwangju FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. FC Anyang (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gwangju FC's attack rating (0.93) and FC Anyang's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Anyang's attack versus Gwangju FC's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Anyang Win
31%
3.22
34%
2.96
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Gwangju FC xG
Total xG
2.09
1.08
FC Anyang xG
3.22
31%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
10%
9.53
13%
7.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Gwangju FC and FC Anyang expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Gwangju FC and 1.08 for FC Anyang, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Gwangju FC have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 15W 9D 14L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
FC Anyang's form line: 14W 7D 17L from 38 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gwangju FC on 1.42 PPG, FC Anyang on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gwangju FC have posted 1.47 PPG from 19 outings (8W 4D 7L).
On the road, FC Anyang have gone 6W 3D 10L from 19 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Gwangju FC are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; FC Anyang are on 1.29 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Anyang in 61%.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gwangju FC
Current Season
FC Anyang
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gwangju FC and FC Anyang in coming into this match?
Gwangju FC have gone 15W 9D 14L in their last 38 games (1.42 PPG), while FC Anyang have gone 14W 7D 17L in their last 38 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gwangju FC at home or FC Anyang away?
Gwangju FC's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gwangju FC at home: 1.47 PPG; FC Anyang away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Gwangju FC or FC Anyang been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gwangju FC have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, FC Anyang in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gwangju FC and FC Anyang runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 19 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2026, when FC Anyang won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gwangju FC's record when hosting FC Anyang specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Gwangju FC
2
Draws
1
FC Anyang
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and FC Anyang?
From 6 meetings on record, Gwangju FC have won 3, FC Anyang have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gwangju FC and FC Anyang last play each other?
They last met on 19 July 2026, when FC Anyang 1-1 Gwangju FC.
Who has won more matches between Gwangju FC and FC Anyang?
Gwangju FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gwangju FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
FC Anyang are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gwangju FC 47%, FC Anyang 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Gwangju FC) and 58% (FC Anyang).
On the defensive side: Gwangju FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; FC Anyang in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gwangju FC home games / FC Anyang away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gwangju FC play FC Anyang?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Gwangju FC's games and 63% of FC Anyang's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Gwangju FC's recent games and 58% of FC Anyang's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gwangju FC and FC Anyang tend to score early?
Gwangju FC have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, FC Anyang in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Anyang run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Gwangju FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Anyang beat Gwangju FC 2-5 at Gwangju Football Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 1.00 xG and FC Anyang 1.08 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Gwangju FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Anyang outscored their 1.08 projection by 3.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.00 against FC Anyang attack 0.92 / defence 0.94, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 31% | Draw 34% | FC Anyang 35%, with FC Anyang to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gwangju FC 37%, FC Anyang 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gwangju FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Anyang's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gwangju FC 1.42 PPG, FC Anyang 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Anyang win broke the near-deadlock. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Anyang (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.