Gangwon FC 1-0 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gangwon FC at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 24 as Gangwon FC welcome Daegu FC to Chuncheon Songam Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 10 August 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Gangwon FC — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Gangwon FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gangwon FC's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Chuncheon Songam Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Daegu FC have recorded 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Daegu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Daegu FC have posted 0W 8D 2L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Gangwon FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Gangwon FC trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Daegu FC trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 56% versus Daegu FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gangwon FC 49% | Daegu FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.85 xG and Daegu FC 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 1.274 / defence 1.048 | Daegu FC attack 0.945 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.259. Gangwon FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — their λ of 1.85 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 58 Gangwon FC games / 58 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 51% | Draw 24% | Daegu FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Daegu FC 4.00. Gangwon FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gangwon FC at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.10 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gangwon FC 70% | Daegu FC 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Chuncheon Songam Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 10 Aug 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 51% | Draw 24% | Daegu FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Gangwon FC 1.85 / Daegu FC 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 1.274 / def 1.048 | Daegu FC attack 0.945 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.259 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Daegu FC xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC kicked off at 11:30 on Wednesday 10 August 2022 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC?
Gangwon FC 1 - 0 Daegu FC.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC part of?
Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 51% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Gangwon FC and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Daegu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gangwon FC and Daegu FC in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Daegu FC (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gangwon FC's attack rating (1.27) and Daegu FC's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus Gangwon FC's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
51%
1.96
24%
4.19
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
3.10
1.25
Daegu FC xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
16%
6.37
Win to Nil
15%
6.83
4%
25.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.4 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 1.25 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 63 outings, Gangwon FC have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 19W 19D 25L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Gangwon FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Daegu FC's form line: 20W 22D 21L from 63 games, 1.30 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Daegu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gangwon FC on 1.21 PPG, Daegu FC on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gangwon FC have posted 1.68 PPG from 31 outings (14W 10D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Gangwon FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Daegu FC have gone 7W 12D 12L from 31 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gangwon FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gangwon FC are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.17 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 63 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Blended
Daegu FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gangwon FC and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 19W 19D 25L in their last 63 games (1.21 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 20W 22D 21L in their last 63 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gangwon FC at home or Daegu FC away?
Gangwon FC's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gangwon FC at home: 1.68 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gangwon FC and Daegu FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2024, when Gangwon FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gangwon FC's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gangwon FC
4
Draws
2
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 4, Daegu FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Daegu FC 2-2 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and Daegu FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gangwon FC 52%, Daegu FC 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Gangwon FC) and 45% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Gangwon FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Daegu FC in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gangwon FC play Daegu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Gangwon FC's games and 64% of Daegu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Gangwon FC's recent games and 45% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gangwon FC and Daegu FC tend to score early?
Gangwon FC have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gangwon FC edge out Daegu FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC beat Daegu FC 1-0 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.85 xG and Daegu FC 1.25 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gangwon FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Daegu FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 1.27 / defence 1.05 against Daegu FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.11, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 51% | Draw 24% | Daegu FC 25%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 49%, Daegu FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gangwon FC's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Daegu FC's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gangwon FC 1.21 PPG, Daegu FC 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gangwon FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.