Gangwon FC 0-3 Bucheon FC 1995 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gangwon FC at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gangwon FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Bucheon FC 1995 travel to Chuncheon Songam Stadium to take on Gangwon FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 August 2026, 10:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Gangwon FC have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Gangwon FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gangwon FC's home record at Chuncheon Songam Stadium: 5W 4D 1L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
Bucheon FC 1995 — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bucheon FC 1995, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bucheon FC 1995 away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Gangwon FC are in the better shape of the two on current K League 1 data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Gangwon FC have won 0, Bucheon FC 1995 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Gangwon FC in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Bucheon FC 1995 in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 46% versus Bucheon FC 1995 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gangwon FC 27% | Bucheon FC 1995 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.45 xG and Bucheon FC 1995 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 1.193 / defence 0.715 | Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.771 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.107 / away 1.290. Gangwon FC's defence rating of 0.715 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Gangwon FC games / 20 Bucheon FC 1995 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 52% | Draw 32% | Bucheon FC 1995 16%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 1.92 | Draw 3.12 | Bucheon FC 1995 6.25. Gangwon FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gangwon FC are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Gangwon FC 50% | Bucheon FC 1995 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Chuncheon Songam Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Aug 2026, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 52% | Draw 32% | Bucheon FC 1995 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Gangwon FC 1.45 / Bucheon FC 1995 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 1.193 / def 0.715 | Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.771 / def 1.101 | league avg home 1.107 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 1 August 2026 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Gangwon FC 0 - 3 Bucheon FC 1995.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 being played?
The match is being played at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 part of?
Gangwon FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 52% chance of winning, Bucheon FC 1995 a 16% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Gangwon FC and Bucheon FC 1995 will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Bucheon FC 1995?
Record (1 meetings): Gangwon FC 0W | Draws 1 | Bucheon FC 1995 0W.
What form are Gangwon FC and Bucheon FC 1995 in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Bucheon FC 1995 (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gangwon FC's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Bucheon FC 1995's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, Bucheon FC 1995's attack versus Gangwon FC's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
52%
1.92
32%
3.10
16%
6.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
2.16
0.71
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
6.43
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
26%
3.90
4%
27.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 8.2 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 11.9 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Bucheon FC 1995 expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 0.71 for Bucheon FC 1995, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gangwon FC's recent record stands at 9W 9D 4L from 22 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Gangwon FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bucheon FC 1995, meanwhile, have gone 6W 8D 8L across 22 games — 1.18 PPG, with D-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Bucheon FC 1995 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Gangwon FC by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bucheon FC 1995 heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Gangwon FC have managed 5W 4D 1L from 10 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bucheon FC 1995's away record stands at 3W 4D 3L across 10 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gangwon FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gangwon FC are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 0.68 conceded per game recently; Bucheon FC 1995 are on 1.00 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Gangwon FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Blended
Bucheon FC 1995
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gangwon FC and Bucheon FC 1995 in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 9W 9D 4L in their last 22 games (1.64 PPG), while Bucheon FC 1995 have gone 6W 8D 8L in their last 22 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gangwon FC at home or Bucheon FC 1995 away?
Gangwon FC's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gangwon FC at home: 1.90 PPG; Bucheon FC 1995 away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Gangwon FC or Bucheon FC 1995 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gangwon FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Bucheon FC 1995 in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Gangwon FC
1
Draws
1
Bucheon FC 1995
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Bucheon FC 1995?
From 2 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 0, Bucheon FC 1995 have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Bucheon FC 1995 last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Gangwon FC 0-3 Bucheon FC 1995.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and Bucheon FC 1995?
Bucheon FC 1995 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gangwon FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Bucheon FC 1995 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gangwon FC 50%, Bucheon FC 1995 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Gangwon FC and 30% for Bucheon FC 1995.
On the defensive side: Gangwon FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Bucheon FC 1995 in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Bucheon FC 1995 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gangwon FC play Bucheon FC 1995?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Gangwon FC's recent matches and 40% of Bucheon FC 1995's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gangwon FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Gangwon FC's recent games and 30% of Bucheon FC 1995's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gangwon FC and Bucheon FC 1995 tend to score early?
Gangwon FC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Bucheon FC 1995 in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bucheon FC 1995 run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Gangwon FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bucheon FC 1995 beat Gangwon FC 0-3 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.45 xG and Bucheon FC 1995 0.71 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Gangwon FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Bucheon FC 1995 outscored their 0.71 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 1.19 / defence 0.71 against Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.77 / defence 1.10, drawn from 53/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 52% | Draw 32% | Bucheon FC 1995 16%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Bucheon FC 1995 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 27%, Bucheon FC 1995 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gangwon FC's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Bucheon FC 1995's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Gangwon FC arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Bucheon FC 1995 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bucheon FC 1995 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.