FC Seoul 0-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Seoul at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Seoul host Ulsan Hyundai FC at Seoul World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 May 2024 at 06:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Seoul stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
FC Seoul's home record at Seoul World Cup Stadium: 2W 4D 4L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Seoul World Cup Stadium this season.
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Seoul at 1.50 PPG versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, FC Seoul have won 0, Ulsan Hyundai FC 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC Seoul in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Seoul 59% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Seoul 46% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Seoul 2.10 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Seoul attack 1.271 / defence 1.209 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.185 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.207. FC Seoul carry an above-average attack strength of 1.271 — their λ of 2.10 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 43 FC Seoul games / 42 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Seoul 45% | Draw 24% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 31%. Fair-value odds: FC Seoul 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.23. FC Seoul hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.83. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.83 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.10 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Seoul are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Seoul offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 74% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: FC Seoul 50% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Seoul World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024, 06:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Seoul 45% | Draw 24% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 74% | xG FC Seoul 2.10 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: FC Seoul attack 1.271 / def 1.209 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.185 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: FC Seoul (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
FC Seoul xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 06:30 on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
FC Seoul 0 - 1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What competition is FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Seoul a 45% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Seoul the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Record (1 meetings): FC Seoul 0W | Draws 1 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 0W.
What form are FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
FC Seoul (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Seoul's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.10. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus FC Seoul's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Seoul Win
45%
2.21
24%
4.16
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
FC Seoul xG
Total xG
3.83
1.73
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
2.21
45%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.36
26%
BTTS No
3.81
Clean Sheet
18%
5.63
12%
8.19
Win to Nil
8%
12.42
4%
26.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for FC Seoul and 1.73 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 3.83.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Seoul's recent record stands at 25W 26D 25L from 76 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-D in the last five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC, meanwhile, have gone 45W 17D 14L across 76 games — 2.00 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ulsan Hyundai FC by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Seoul heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Seoul have managed 13W 12D 13L from 38 games — 1.34 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record stands at 20W 9D 9L across 38 trips, a 1.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Seoul are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.58 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Seoul
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
FC Seoul have gone 25W 26D 25L in their last 76 games (1.33 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 45W 17D 14L in their last 76 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Seoul at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Seoul at home: 1.34 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.82 PPG.
Have FC Seoul or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Seoul have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2026, when FC Seoul won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Seoul's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Seoul
4
Draws
3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Seoul have won 3, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when FC Seoul 1-3 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Seoul see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Seoul 60%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Seoul) and 47% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Seoul home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Seoul play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of FC Seoul's games and 53% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC Seoul's recent games and 47% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
FC Seoul have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ulsan Hyundai FC defy the odds to beat FC Seoul 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat FC Seoul 0-1 at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 2.10 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.73 xG, a combined 3.83. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Seoul fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 1.27 / defence 1.21 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.19 / defence 1.11, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 45% | Draw 24% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 31%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Ulsan Hyundai FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 46%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Seoul's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win. FC Seoul (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.