FC Anyang 2-1 Bucheon FC 1995 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Anyang at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Anyang vs Bucheon FC 1995 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Anyang host Bucheon FC 1995 at Anyang Stadium in K League 1, Relegation Group - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 November 2026 at 07:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Anyang stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Anyang have posted 3W 3D 4L at Anyang Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bucheon FC 1995 — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 0.20 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season.
Bucheon FC 1995's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
On current form, FC Anyang have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, FC Anyang have won 1, Bucheon FC 1995 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FC Anyang in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Bucheon FC 1995 in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Anyang 69% versus Bucheon FC 1995 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Anyang 46% | Bucheon FC 1995 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Anyang 1.41 xG and Bucheon FC 1995 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Anyang attack 0.948 / defence 1.287 | Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.737 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.328. Data: 66 FC Anyang games / 33 Bucheon FC 1995 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Anyang 38% | Draw 32% | Bucheon FC 1995 31%. Fair-value odds: FC Anyang 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Bucheon FC 1995 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Anyang as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Anyang offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: FC Anyang 80% | Bucheon FC 1995 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Anyang vs Bucheon FC 1995 | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Group - 34 | Venue: Anyang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Anyang 38% | Draw 32% | Bucheon FC 1995 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG FC Anyang 1.41 / Bucheon FC 1995 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: FC Anyang attack 0.948 / def 1.287 | Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.737 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: FC Anyang (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
FC Anyang xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Anyang vs Bucheon FC 1995 kick off?
FC Anyang vs Bucheon FC 1995 kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Anyang Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Anyang vs Bucheon FC 1995?
FC Anyang 2 - 1 Bucheon FC 1995.
Where is FC Anyang vs Bucheon FC 1995 being played?
The match is being played at Anyang Stadium.
What competition is FC Anyang vs Bucheon FC 1995 part of?
FC Anyang vs Bucheon FC 1995 is a Relegation Group - 34 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Anyang vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Our statistical model gives FC Anyang a 38% chance of winning, Bucheon FC 1995 a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making FC Anyang the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Anyang vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FC Anyang and Bucheon FC 1995 will score (BTTS).
Will FC Anyang vs Bucheon FC 1995 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Bucheon FC 1995?
Record (3 meetings): FC Anyang 1W | Draws 1 | Bucheon FC 1995 1W.
What form are FC Anyang and Bucheon FC 1995 in?
FC Anyang (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Bucheon FC 1995 (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC Anyang's attack at 0.95x the league average against Bucheon FC 1995's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bucheon FC 1995's attack versus FC Anyang's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Anyang Win
38%
2.67
32%
3.14
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
FC Anyang xG
Total xG
2.67
1.26
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
2.67
38%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
11%
9.40
8%
13.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.3 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Anyang vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are FC Anyang and Bucheon FC 1995 expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for FC Anyang and 1.26 for Bucheon FC 1995, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Anyang vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Anyang's recent record stands at 10W 14D 11L from 35 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-D in the last five.
Bucheon FC 1995, meanwhile, have gone 8W 11D 16L across 35 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Anyang on 1.26 PPG, Bucheon FC 1995 on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Anyang have managed 4W 6D 7L from 17 games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bucheon FC 1995's away record stands at 5W 4D 8L across 17 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
FC Anyang are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Bucheon FC 1995 are on 0.94 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Anyang have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Anyang
Current Season
Bucheon FC 1995
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Anyang and Bucheon FC 1995 in coming into this match?
FC Anyang have gone 10W 14D 11L in their last 35 games (1.26 PPG), while Bucheon FC 1995 have gone 8W 11D 16L in their last 35 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Anyang at home or Bucheon FC 1995 away?
Bucheon FC 1995's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Anyang at home: 1.06 PPG; Bucheon FC 1995 away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Anyang and Bucheon FC 1995 runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 1 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Anyang's record when hosting Bucheon FC 1995 specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC Anyang
1
Draws
1
Bucheon FC 1995
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Bucheon FC 1995?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Anyang have won 2, Bucheon FC 1995 have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Anyang and Bucheon FC 1995 last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2026, when FC Anyang 2-1 Bucheon FC 1995.
Who has won more matches between FC Anyang and Bucheon FC 1995?
FC Anyang have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Anyang are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bucheon FC 1995 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Anyang 71%, Bucheon FC 1995 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (FC Anyang) and 47% (Bucheon FC 1995).
On the defensive side: FC Anyang have failed to score in 29% of games; Bucheon FC 1995 in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Anyang home games / Bucheon FC 1995 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Anyang play Bucheon FC 1995?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of FC Anyang's games and 41% of Bucheon FC 1995's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Anyang vs Bucheon FC 1995 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of FC Anyang's recent games and 47% of Bucheon FC 1995's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Anyang and Bucheon FC 1995 tend to score early?
FC Anyang have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Bucheon FC 1995 in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Anyang edge out Bucheon FC 1995 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Anyang beat Bucheon FC 1995 2-1 at Anyang Stadium, Relegation Group - 34, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Anyang 1.41 xG and Bucheon FC 1995 1.26 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Anyang attack 0.95 / defence 1.29 against Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.74 / defence 1.17, drawn from 66/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Anyang 38% | Draw 32% | Bucheon FC 1995 31%, with FC Anyang to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Anyang 46%, Bucheon FC 1995 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Anyang's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Bucheon FC 1995's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Anyang 1.26 PPG, Bucheon FC 1995 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Anyang win broke the near-deadlock. FC Anyang (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.