Daegu FC 2-3 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Gimcheon Sangmu FC travel to DGB Daegu Bank Park to take on Daegu FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 18 July 2025, 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Daegu FC have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Daegu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Daegu FC at DGB Daegu Bank Park this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Daegu FC are significantly better at DGB Daegu Bank Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Gimcheon Sangmu FC's 1.20 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Daegu FC's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Daegu FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Daegu FC, 3 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 3 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 8 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.6 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 0–2 with Gimcheon Sangmu FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Daegu FC trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 61% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 58% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.14 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.940 / defence 1.112 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.148 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.192 / away 1.217. Data: 54 Daegu FC games / 54 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 27% | Draw 27% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 46%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.17. Gimcheon Sangmu FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Daegu FC 60% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Friday 18 Jul 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 27% | Draw 27% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Daegu FC 1.14 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.940 / def 1.112 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.148 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.192 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 11:30 on Friday 18 July 2025 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Daegu FC 2 - 3 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 27% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Record (8 meetings): Daegu FC 2W | Draws 3 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3W.
What form are Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Daegu FC's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack versus Daegu FC's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
27%
3.73
27%
3.67
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.69
1.55
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
3.73
27%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
21%
4.73
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
6%
17.61
15%
6.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.5 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.55 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, Daegu FC have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 13W 18D 28L record — D-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Daegu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form line: 27W 14D 18L from 59 games, 1.61 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-L. The sample for Gimcheon Sangmu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Gimcheon Sangmu FC are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Daegu FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Daegu FC have posted 1.28 PPG from 29 outings (9W 10D 10L).
On the road, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 11W 7D 11L from 29 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Daegu FC are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are on 1.39 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Daegu FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Blended
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 13W 18D 28L in their last 59 games (0.97 PPG), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 27W 14D 18L in their last 59 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Gimcheon Sangmu FC away?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.28 PPG; Gimcheon Sangmu FC away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Daegu FC or Gimcheon Sangmu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daegu FC have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 14 September 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2024, when Daegu FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Daegu FC's record when hosting Gimcheon Sangmu FC specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Daegu FC
3
Draws
4
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 3, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2025, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-2 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 62%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Daegu FC) and 55% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 31%; Daegu FC have failed to score in 28% of games; Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Daegu FC's games and 48% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Daegu FC's matches and 55% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's.
Do Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC tend to score early?
Daegu FC have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gimcheon Sangmu FC edge out Daegu FC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Daegu FC 2-3 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 22, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.14 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.55 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Daegu FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gimcheon Sangmu FC outscored their 1.55 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.11 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.15 / defence 1.01, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 27% | Draw 27% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 46%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 58%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Gimcheon Sangmu FC arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.97. Form held, and they took the win. Daegu FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.