Bucheon FC 1995 3-2 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeonbuk Motors at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeonbuk Motors fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bucheon FC 1995 host Jeonbuk Motors at Bucheon Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 August 2026 at 10:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Bucheon FC 1995 — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Bucheon FC 1995, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bucheon FC 1995 have posted 1W 4D 5L at Bucheon Stadium — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeonbuk Motors have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Jeonbuk Motors, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jeonbuk Motors's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Bucheon FC 1995) versus 1.30 (Jeonbuk Motors). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Bucheon FC 1995 have won 1, Jeonbuk Motors 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Bucheon FC 1995 in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Jeonbuk Motors in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 8% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bucheon FC 1995 42% versus Jeonbuk Motors 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bucheon FC 1995 38% | Jeonbuk Motors 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bucheon FC 1995 0.67 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.785 / defence 1.157 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.946 / defence 0.772. League average goals — home 1.098 / away 1.307. Bucheon FC 1995's attack strength of 0.785 is below the league average — the 0.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Jeonbuk Motors's defence strength of 0.772 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 22 Bucheon FC 1995 games / 55 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bucheon FC 1995 14% | Draw 33% | Jeonbuk Motors 53%. Fair-value odds: Bucheon FC 1995 7.14 | Draw 3.03 | Jeonbuk Motors 1.89. Jeonbuk Motors hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeonbuk Motors are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bucheon FC 1995 40% | Jeonbuk Motors 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Bucheon Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Aug 2026, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bucheon FC 1995 14% | Draw 33% | Jeonbuk Motors 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG Bucheon FC 1995 0.67 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.785 / def 1.157 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.946 / def 0.772 | league avg home 1.098 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Jeonbuk Motors xG
40%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 16 August 2026 at Bucheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Bucheon FC 1995 3 - 2 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Bucheon Stadium.
What competition is Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Bucheon FC 1995 a 14% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 53% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Bucheon FC 1995 and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bucheon FC 1995 and Jeonbuk Motors?
Record (2 meetings): Bucheon FC 1995 1W | Draws 1 | Jeonbuk Motors 0W.
What form are Bucheon FC 1995 and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Bucheon FC 1995 (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bucheon FC 1995's attack rating (0.79) and Jeonbuk Motors's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 0.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jeonbuk Motors's attack versus Bucheon FC 1995's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
14%
6.96
33%
3.02
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.6%
Away win
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
Total xG
2.10
1.43
Jeonbuk Motors xG
6.96
14%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
51%
1.95
Win to Nil
3%
29.08
27%
3.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 17.6 | 12.6 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.7 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Bucheon FC 1995 and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Bucheon FC 1995 and 1.43 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 24 outings, Bucheon FC 1995 have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 7W 9D 8L record — L-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Bucheon FC 1995 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jeonbuk Motors's form line: 10W 8D 6L from 24 games, 1.58 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-L. The sample for Jeonbuk Motors is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bucheon FC 1995 on 1.25 PPG, Jeonbuk Motors on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bucheon FC 1995 have posted 0.92 PPG from 12 outings (2W 5D 5L).
On the road, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 4W 6D 2L from 12 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bucheon FC 1995 are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Jeonbuk Motors are on 1.25 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Bucheon FC 1995 have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Jeonbuk Motors in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bucheon FC 1995
Blended
Jeonbuk Motors
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bucheon FC 1995 and Jeonbuk Motors in coming into this match?
Bucheon FC 1995 have gone 7W 9D 8L in their last 24 games (1.25 PPG), while Jeonbuk Motors have gone 10W 8D 6L in their last 24 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bucheon FC 1995 at home or Jeonbuk Motors away?
Jeonbuk Motors's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bucheon FC 1995 at home: 0.92 PPG; Jeonbuk Motors away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Bucheon FC 1995 or Jeonbuk Motors been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bucheon FC 1995 have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Jeonbuk Motors in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bucheon FC 1995 and Jeonbuk Motors runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bucheon FC 1995's record when hosting Jeonbuk Motors specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Bucheon FC 1995
1
Draws
0
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bucheon FC 1995 and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 3 meetings on record, Bucheon FC 1995 have won 2, Jeonbuk Motors have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bucheon FC 1995 and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Bucheon FC 1995 3-2 Jeonbuk Motors.
Who has won more matches between Bucheon FC 1995 and Jeonbuk Motors?
Bucheon FC 1995 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bucheon FC 1995 see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bucheon FC 1995 42%, Jeonbuk Motors 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Bucheon FC 1995 and 8% for Jeonbuk Motors.
On the defensive side: Bucheon FC 1995 keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Jeonbuk Motors in 50%; Bucheon FC 1995 have failed to score in 42% of games; Jeonbuk Motors in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bucheon FC 1995 home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bucheon FC 1995 play Jeonbuk Motors?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Bucheon FC 1995's recent matches and 33% of Jeonbuk Motors's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeonbuk Motors usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Bucheon FC 1995's recent games and 8% of Jeonbuk Motors's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Bucheon FC 1995 defy the odds to beat Jeonbuk Motors 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bucheon FC 1995 beat Jeonbuk Motors 3-2 at Bucheon Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bucheon FC 1995 0.67 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.43 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Bucheon FC 1995 beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.79 / defence 1.16 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.95 / defence 0.77, drawn from 22/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bucheon FC 1995 14% | Draw 33% | Jeonbuk Motors 53%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Bucheon FC 1995 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bucheon FC 1995 38%, Jeonbuk Motors 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bucheon FC 1995's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bucheon FC 1995 1.25 PPG, Jeonbuk Motors 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bucheon FC 1995 win broke the near-deadlock. Bucheon FC 1995 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.