NEOM 0-1 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates NEOM at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
NEOM host Al-Ettifaq at King Khalid Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 October 2026 at 15:40 UTC.
Form Guide
NEOM — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for NEOM, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEOM's home record at King Khalid Sport City Stadium: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ettifaq have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — NEOM at 1.70 PPG versus Al-Ettifaq's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, NEOM have won 0, Al-Ettifaq 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
NEOM in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Al-Ettifaq in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEOM 60% versus Al-Ettifaq 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEOM 50% | Al-Ettifaq 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEOM 1.66 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEOM attack 1.238 / defence 0.964 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.066 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.394. Data: 42 NEOM games / 42 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEOM 40% | Draw 30% | Al-Ettifaq 30%. Fair-value odds: NEOM 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Ettifaq 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, NEOM are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NEOM offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: NEOM 70% | Al-Ettifaq 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: King Khalid Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 15:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEOM 40% | Draw 30% | Al-Ettifaq 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 65% | xG NEOM 1.66 / Al-Ettifaq 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: NEOM attack 1.238 / def 0.964 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.066 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.394 • Poisson stance: NEOM (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
NEOM xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Al-Ettifaq xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 15:40 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at King Khalid Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq?
NEOM 0 - 1 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at King Khalid Sport City Stadium.
What competition is NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives NEOM a 40% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making NEOM the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both NEOM and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEOM and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (2 meetings): NEOM 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Ettifaq 0W.
What form are NEOM and Al-Ettifaq in?
NEOM (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
NEOM's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Al-Ettifaq's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus NEOM's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NEOM Win
40%
2.52
30%
3.31
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
NEOM xG
Total xG
3.09
1.43
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
9%
10.55
6%
17.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.8 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are NEOM and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for NEOM and 1.43 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, NEOM have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 17W 10D 15L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for NEOM is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ettifaq's form line: 17W 11D 14L from 42 games, 1.48 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-D. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: NEOM on 1.45 PPG, Al-Ettifaq on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, NEOM have posted 1.40 PPG from 20 outings (8W 4D 8L).
On the road, Al-Ettifaq have gone 9W 3D 8L from 20 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
NEOM are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.50 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEOM
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEOM and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
NEOM have gone 17W 10D 15L in their last 42 games (1.45 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 17W 11D 14L in their last 42 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEOM at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Ettifaq's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEOM at home: 1.40 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between NEOM and Al-Ettifaq runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
NEOM's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
NEOM
2
Draws
1
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEOM and Al-Ettifaq?
From 3 meetings on record, NEOM have won 0, Al-Ettifaq have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did NEOM and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when NEOM 0-1 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between NEOM and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NEOM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NEOM 65%, Al-Ettifaq 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for NEOM and 55% for Al-Ettifaq. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEOM home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEOM play Al-Ettifaq?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of NEOM's games and 50% of Al-Ettifaq's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of NEOM's matches and 55% of Al-Ettifaq's.
Do NEOM and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
NEOM have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Ettifaq defy the odds to beat NEOM 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat NEOM 0-1 at King Khalid Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEOM 1.66 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.43 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. NEOM fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEOM attack 1.24 / defence 0.96 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.07 / defence 0.94, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEOM 40% | Draw 30% | Al-Ettifaq 30%, with NEOM to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Al-Ettifaq win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEOM 50%, Al-Ettifaq 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEOM's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NEOM 1.45 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. NEOM (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.