Al Taawon 1-2 Al Riyadh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 71% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taawon vs Al Riyadh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al Taawon welcome Al Riyadh to Al Taawon Club Stadium in Pro League (matchday 14). Kick-off is Friday 24 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Al Taawon have gone 5W 3D 2L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W D D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al Taawon at home: 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Al Taawon are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Al Riyadh — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Al Riyadh's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 4L across their last 6 road games (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.83 conceded per game.
Al Taawon carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Al Taawon in-play and half-time data (last 13 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Al Riyadh in-play and half-time data (last 13 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 54% versus Al Riyadh 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 38% | Al Riyadh 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 2.31 xG and Al Riyadh 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 1.024 / defence 0.744 | Al Riyadh attack 0.787 / defence 1.454. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.365. Al Riyadh's defence rating of 1.454 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Taawon's projected output up. Al Riyadh's attack rating of 0.787 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.80. Al Taawon have a tight defence (rating 0.744), which is pulling Al Riyadh's projected output down. Data: built from Al Taawon's last 43 games and Al Riyadh's last 13.
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 71% | Draw 18% | Al Riyadh 11%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 1.41 | Draw 5.46 | Al Riyadh 9.22. The model has a clear lean to Al Taawon (71%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Taawon as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Taawon's last 10 home games and Al Riyadh's last 6 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Taawon 70% (last 10 home games) | Al Riyadh 50% (last 6 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al Riyadh | Competition: Pro League, matchday 14 | Venue: Al Taawon Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 24 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 71% | Draw 18% | Al Riyadh 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Al Taawon 2.31 / Al Riyadh 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 1.024 / def 0.744 | Al Riyadh attack 0.787 / def 1.454 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Al Riyadh xG
50%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Taawon vs Al Riyadh FAQs
What time does Al Taawon vs Al Riyadh kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al Riyadh kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Friday 24 November 2023 at Al Taawon Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al Riyadh?
Al Taawon 1 - 2 Al Riyadh.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al Riyadh being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawon Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al Riyadh part of?
Al Taawon vs Al Riyadh is a Pro League fixture (matchday 14) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al Riyadh?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 71% chance of winning, Al Riyadh a 11% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al Riyadh?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al Taawon and Al Riyadh will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Al Taawon vs Al Riyadh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Taawon's attack rating (1.02) and Al Riyadh's defence rating (1.45), the model arrives at 2.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Riyadh's attack versus Al Taawon's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Taawon's last 43 games and Al Riyadh's last 13 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
71%
1.41
18%
5.46
11%
9.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
3.11
0.80
Al Riyadh xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.46
18%
Draw
9.22
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
10%
10.06
Win to Nil
32%
3.14
1%
92.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Taawon vs Al Riyadh Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al Riyadh?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al Riyadh expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Al Taawon and 0.80 for Al Riyadh, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al Riyadh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Taawon's recent record stands at 7W 4D 2L from 13 games, a 1.92 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-L in the last five.
Al Riyadh, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 7L across 13 games — 0.92 PPG, with D-W-L-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Taawon by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Riyadh heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Taawon have managed 4W 2D 0L from their last 6 home games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.92 PPG overall — Al Taawon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al Riyadh's away record stands at 1W 1D 4L across their last 6 away games, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Taawon are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Al Riyadh are on 0.92 scored and 2.15 conceded.
Defensively: Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al Riyadh
Blended
Al Taawon (Home) vs Al Riyadh (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Taawon
Blended
Al Riyadh
Blended
❓ Al Taawon vs Al Riyadh Form FAQs
What form are Al Taawon and Al Riyadh in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 7W 4D 2L in their last 13 games (1.92 PPG), while Al Riyadh have gone 3W 3D 7L in their last 13 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al Riyadh away?
Al Taawon's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 2.33 PPG; Al Riyadh away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Al Riyadh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Al Riyadh in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from November 2023. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Al Taawon's record when hosting Al Riyadh specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Al Taawon
2
Draws
3
Al Riyadh
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Taawon vs Al Riyadh H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al Riyadh?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Taawon have won 2, Al Riyadh have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al Riyadh last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Al Riyadh 2-1 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al Riyadh?
Al Riyadh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 50%, Al Riyadh 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Al Taawon and 83% for Al Riyadh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Taawon keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al Riyadh in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al Riyadh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Taawon vs Al Riyadh Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Taawon and Al Riyadh matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 50% of Al Riyadh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al Taawon and Al Riyadh matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al Taawon's matches and 83% of Al Riyadh's.
Do Al Taawon and Al Riyadh matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 83% of Al Riyadh's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Riyadh defy the odds to beat Al Taawon 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Riyadh beat Al Taawon 1-2 at Al Taawon Club Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 2.31 xG and Al Riyadh 0.80 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al Taawon fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Al Riyadh outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.02 / defence 0.74 against Al Riyadh attack 0.79 / defence 1.45, drawn from 43/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 71% | Draw 18% | Al Riyadh 11%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a Al Riyadh win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 38%, Al Riyadh 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Riyadh's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Al Riyadh winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Taawon (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.