Al Taee 4-3 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taee at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taee vs Al-Raed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 14 as Al Taee welcome Al-Raed to Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 24 November 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Taee — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taee's home record at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Al Taee are significantly better at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Raed have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Raed's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Taee at 0.80 PPG versus Al-Raed's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Al Taee have won 1, Al-Raed 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Taee trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Al-Raed trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taee 51% versus Al-Raed 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Taee 60% | Al-Raed 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 1.51 xG and Al-Raed 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 1.018 / defence 1.144 | Al-Raed attack 0.771 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.375. Data: 43 Al Taee games / 43 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taee 43% | Draw 27% | Al-Raed 29%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Raed 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Taee at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taee offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al Taee 50% | Al-Raed 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taee vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 24 Nov 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taee 43% | Draw 27% | Al-Raed 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Al Taee 1.51 / Al-Raed 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taee attack 1.018 / def 1.144 | Al-Raed attack 0.771 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Al Taee (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Al Taee xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Al-Raed xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taee vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al Taee vs Al-Raed kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 24 November 2023 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taee vs Al-Raed?
Al Taee 4 - 3 Al-Raed.
Where is Al Taee vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What competition is Al Taee vs Al-Raed part of?
Al Taee vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taee vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al Taee a 43% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Taee the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taee vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al Taee and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taee vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Raed?
Record (4 meetings): Al Taee 1W | Draws 2 | Al-Raed 1W.
What form are Al Taee and Al-Raed in?
Al Taee (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Al-Raed (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Taee's attack at 1.02x the league average against Al-Raed's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Raed's attack versus Al Taee's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taee Win
43%
2.32
27%
3.65
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Al Taee xG
Total xG
2.73
1.21
Al-Raed xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
13%
7.80
6%
15.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.0 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taee vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Al Taee and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Al Taee and 1.21 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taee vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Taee come into this having played 43 games, going 13W 6D 24L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Raed sit at 1.00 PPG from 43 outings (11W 10D 22L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Taee on 1.05 PPG, Al-Raed on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Taee's home form reads 10W 2D 9L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — Al Taee are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al-Raed have taken 0.90 points per game from 21 outings (4W 7D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taee come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Taee are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.23 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taee
Blended
Al-Raed
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taee and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al Taee have gone 13W 6D 24L in their last 43 games (1.05 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 11W 10D 22L in their last 43 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taee at home or Al-Raed away?
Al Taee's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taee at home: 1.52 PPG; Al-Raed away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Taee and Al-Raed runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2021, when Al-Raed won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Taee's record when hosting Al-Raed specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al Taee
3
Draws
1
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Raed?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Taee have won 2, Al-Raed have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Taee and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2024, when Al-Raed 1-1 Al Taee.
Who has won more matches between Al Taee and Al-Raed?
Al Taee have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taee 48%, Al-Raed 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Al Taee and 62% for Al-Raed. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Taee keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Al-Raed in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taee home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taee play Al-Raed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Al Taee's recent matches and 52% of Al-Raed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taee vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Al Taee's matches and 62% of Al-Raed's.
Do Al Taee and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Al Taee have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Taee edge out Al-Raed 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taee beat Al-Raed 4-3 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taee 1.51 xG and Al-Raed 1.21 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Al Taee beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Raed outscored their 1.21 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taee attack 1.02 / defence 1.14 against Al-Raed attack 0.77 / defence 0.96, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taee 43% | Draw 27% | Al-Raed 29%, with Al Taee to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taee 60%, Al-Raed 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taee's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Raed's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Taee 1.05 PPG, Al-Raed 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Taee win broke the near-deadlock. Al Taee (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Raed (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.