Al Taawon 0-1 Al-Qadisiyah FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taawon vs Al-Qadisiyah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Al Taawon host Al-Qadisiyah FC at Al Taawoun Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 May 2025 at 17:15 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Taawon stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Al Taawon at Al Taawoun Club Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Al-Qadisiyah FC — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Taawon at 1.40 PPG versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al Taawon have won 1, Al-Qadisiyah FC 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Jan 2025, ended 3–0 with Al Taawon winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Al Taawon in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 37% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al Taawon 30% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.51 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.963 / defence 1.065 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.927 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.392. Data: 64 Al Taawon games / 30 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Taawon 41% | Draw 25% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al Taawon as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 50% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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