Al Riyadh 3-1 Al Kholood – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al Riyadh at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Riyadh vs Al Kholood encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium plays host to Al Riyadh versus Al Kholood in Pro League (matchday 2). Kick-off: Thursday 29 August 2024 at 17:55 UK time.
Current Form
Al Riyadh's record over their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al Riyadh at home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Kholood have collected 0.00 PPG across their last 1 games: 0W 0D 1L. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Al Riyadh's favour (1.10 vs 0.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 1.48 xG and Al Kholood 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.960 / defence 0.987 | Al Kholood attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.252. Data: built from Al Riyadh's last 35 games and Al Kholood's last 1. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 47% | Draw 26% | Al Kholood 27%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 2.12 | Draw 3.84 | Al Kholood 3.73. Al Riyadh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Riyadh are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Riyadh if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Riyadh's last 10 home games and Al Kholood's last 1 games) averaging 1.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's sample (Al Riyadh 35 games, Al Kholood 1) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Riyadh vs Al Kholood | Competition: Pro League, matchday 2 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 29 August 2024 at 17:55 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Riyadh 47% | Draw 26% | Al Kholood 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Al Riyadh 1.48 / Al Kholood 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Al Riyadh attack 0.960 / def 0.987 | Al Kholood attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Al Riyadh (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Al Riyadh xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Al Kholood xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Riyadh vs Al Kholood FAQs
What time does Al Riyadh vs Al Kholood kick off?
Al Riyadh vs Al Kholood kicked off at 17:55 UK time on Thursday 29 August 2024 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Riyadh vs Al Kholood?
Al Riyadh 3 - 1 Al Kholood.
Where is Al Riyadh vs Al Kholood being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Riyadh vs Al Kholood part of?
Al Riyadh vs Al Kholood is a Pro League fixture (matchday 2) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Riyadh vs Al Kholood?
Our statistical model gives Al Riyadh a 47% chance of winning, Al Kholood a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Riyadh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Riyadh vs Al Kholood?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al Riyadh and Al Kholood will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Al Riyadh vs Al Kholood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al Riyadh's attack rating (0.96) and Al Kholood's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Kholood's attack (0.85x) against Al Riyadh's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from Al Riyadh's last 35 games and Al Kholood's last 1, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Riyadh Win
47%
2.12
26%
3.84
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Al Riyadh xG
Total xG
2.54
1.05
Al Kholood xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
16%
6.06
6%
16.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.4 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Riyadh vs Al Kholood Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Riyadh vs Al Kholood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Al Riyadh and Al Kholood expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Al Riyadh and 1.05 for Al Kholood, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Riyadh vs Al Kholood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Riyadh come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 1D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D.
On the other side, Al Kholood sit at 0.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 0D 1L), a run that reads L across their last five.
Al Riyadh carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Al Kholood — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Al Riyadh are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Al Kholood are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Al Riyadh's scoring rate against Al Kholood's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Al Riyadh have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Al Kholood in 0%.
Last 1 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Riyadh
Early Season
Al Kholood
Early Season
Al Riyadh (Home) vs Al Kholood (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Riyadh
Early Season
Al Kholood
Early Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
❓ Al Riyadh vs Al Kholood Form FAQs
What form are Al Riyadh and Al Kholood in coming into this match?
Al Riyadh have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Al Kholood have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between Al Riyadh and Al Kholood, the earliest from August 2024. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Al Riyadh have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Riyadh have gone 3W 0D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al Kholood — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Al Riyadh
0
Draws
1
Al Kholood
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Riyadh vs Al Kholood H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al Kholood?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Riyadh have won 4, Al Kholood have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Riyadh and Al Kholood last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: Al Riyadh 2-0 Al Kholood.
Who has won more matches between Al Riyadh and Al Kholood?
Al Riyadh have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Riyadh home games / Al Kholood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Riyadh vs Al Kholood Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Riyadh and Al Kholood matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Al Riyadh's recent matches and 0% of Al Kholood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al Riyadh and Al Kholood matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Al Riyadh's recent games and 0% of Al Kholood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Riyadh and Al Kholood matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Al Riyadh's recent matches and 0% of Al Kholood's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Riyadh cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Kholood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Riyadh beat Al Kholood 3-1 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.48 xG and Al Kholood 1.05 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al Riyadh beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.96 / defence 0.99 against Al Kholood attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 35/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 47% | Draw 26% | Al Kholood 27%, with Al Riyadh to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 100%, Al Kholood 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Riyadh arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Riyadh conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al Kholood scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.