Al Riyadh 2-2 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Riyadh at 39%, yet in-form Al-Fateh provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium plays host to Al Riyadh versus Al-Fateh in Pro League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Wednesday 23 April 2025 at 16:55 UTC.
Form
Al Riyadh (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Al Riyadh's home record at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Al Riyadh are significantly better at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Fateh have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fateh have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Al-Fateh are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Al Riyadh 1W, Al-Fateh 0W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2024, ended 2–1 with Al Riyadh winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al Riyadh — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Al-Fateh — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Riyadh 53% and Al-Fateh 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Riyadh 52% | Al-Fateh 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 1.29 xG and Al-Fateh 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.707 / defence 0.765 | Al-Fateh attack 1.144 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.350. Al Riyadh's attack strength of 0.707 is below the league average — the 1.29 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Fateh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.259 — this is suppressing Al Riyadh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al Riyadh's defence rating of 0.765 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 62 Al Riyadh games / 62 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 39% | Draw 28% | Al-Fateh 33%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Fateh 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Riyadh are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Fateh (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Riyadh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Riyadh 20% | Al-Fateh 70%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 23 Apr 2025, 16:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Riyadh 39% | Draw 28% | Al-Fateh 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Al Riyadh 1.29 / Al-Fateh 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Al Riyadh attack 0.707 / def 0.765 | Al-Fateh attack 1.144 / def 1.259 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: Al Riyadh (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Al Riyadh xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Al-Fateh xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 16:55 on Wednesday 23 April 2025 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh?
Al Riyadh 2 - 2 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al Riyadh a 39% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al Riyadh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al Riyadh and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al-Fateh?
Record (3 meetings): Al Riyadh 1W | Draws 2 | Al-Fateh 0W.
What form are Al Riyadh and Al-Fateh in?
Al Riyadh (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Al-Fateh (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al Riyadh's attack rating (0.71) and Al-Fateh's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Fateh's attack (1.14x) against Al Riyadh's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Riyadh Win
39%
2.59
28%
3.57
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Al Riyadh xG
Total xG
2.47
1.18
Al-Fateh xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
12%
8.42
9%
10.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.0 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.9 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Al Riyadh and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Al Riyadh and 1.18 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Riyadh come into this having played 62 games, going 17W 18D 27L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Al-Fateh sit at 1.19 PPG from 62 outings (20W 14D 28L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Al Riyadh against 1.19 for Al-Fateh. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Al Riyadh's home form reads 9W 11D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fateh have taken 1.00 points per game from 30 outings (8W 6D 16L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Riyadh are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.48 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh in 74%.
Last 62 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Riyadh
Current Season
Al-Fateh
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Riyadh and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al Riyadh have gone 17W 18D 27L in their last 62 games (1.11 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 20W 14D 28L in their last 62 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Riyadh at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al Riyadh's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Riyadh at home: 1.27 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Riyadh have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al Riyadh
3
Draws
1
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al-Fateh?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Riyadh have won 2, Al-Fateh have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Riyadh and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Al Riyadh 1-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al Riyadh and Al-Fateh?
Al Riyadh have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Riyadh 43%, Al-Fateh 77% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Al Riyadh) and 73% (Al-Fateh). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Riyadh keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Al Riyadh have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Riyadh home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Riyadh play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Al Riyadh's games and 77% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Al Riyadh's matches and 73% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al Riyadh and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al Riyadh have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Riyadh and Al-Fateh share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 29, as Al Riyadh and Al-Fateh drew 2-2 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.29 xG and Al-Fateh 1.18 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al-Fateh outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.71 / defence 0.77 against Al-Fateh attack 1.14 / defence 1.26, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 39% | Draw 28% | Al-Fateh 33%, with Al Riyadh to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 52%, Al-Fateh 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Riyadh's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Riyadh 1.11 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.