Al-Fateh 3-1 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Al Shabab travel to Al Fateh Club Stadium to take on Al-Fateh. The game is scheduled for Thursday 1 May 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Al-Fateh have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Al Fateh Club Stadium this season.
Al Shabab — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Shabab have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Al-Fateh) versus 1.90 (Al Shabab). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al-Fateh, 2 for Al Shabab and 3 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Al Shabab in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 75% and Al Shabab 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 65% | Al Shabab 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.47 xG and Al Shabab 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.008 / defence 0.894 | Al Shabab attack 1.156 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.406. Data: 63 Al-Fateh games / 63 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 37% | Draw 26% | Al Shabab 37%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Al Shabab 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 80% | Al Shabab 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Al Fateh Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 1 May 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 37% | Draw 26% | Al Shabab 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Fateh 1.47 / Al Shabab 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.008 / def 0.894 | Al Shabab attack 1.156 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Al Shabab xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 1 May 2025 at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
Al-Fateh 3 - 1 Al Shabab.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 37% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Shabab?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Fateh 2W | Draws 3 | Al Shabab 2W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Shabab in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Al Shabab (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Fateh's attack rating (1.01) and Al Shabab's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Shabab's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
37%
2.67
26%
3.89
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.92
1.45
Al Shabab xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
9%
11.44
9%
11.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.5 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.45 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fateh's recent record stands at 20W 15D 28L from 63 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-D in the last five.
Al Shabab, meanwhile, have gone 27W 14D 22L across 63 games — 1.51 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fateh on 1.19 PPG, Al Shabab on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Fateh have managed 11W 8D 12L from 31 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Shabab's away record stands at 10W 9D 12L across 31 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.57 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Current Season
Al Shabab
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 20W 15D 28L in their last 63 games (1.19 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 27W 14D 22L in their last 63 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al Shabab away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.32 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Al-Fateh or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fateh and Al Shabab runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Dec 2022, when Al-Fateh won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al Shabab specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Fateh
4
Draws
2
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Shabab?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 4, Al Shabab have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2026, when Al Shabab 1-1 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al Shabab?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 71%, Al Shabab 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Al-Fateh) and 52% (Al Shabab).
On the defensive side: Al Shabab in 32%; Al Shabab in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al Shabab?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Al-Fateh's games and 48% of Al Shabab's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 52% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fateh cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Shabab.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Al Shabab 3-1 at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.47 xG and Al Shabab 1.45 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Fateh beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.01 / defence 0.89 against Al Shabab attack 1.16 / defence 0.98, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 37% | Draw 26% | Al Shabab 37%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 65%, Al Shabab 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Al Shabab's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.19 PPG, Al Shabab 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fateh win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm. Al Shabab (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.