Al-Raed 2-2 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Raed face Al-Ettifaq.

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Match Analysis

Al-Raed host Al-Ettifaq at Al Raid Club Stadium in Pro League (matchday 29). Kick-off is Saturday 27 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Raed stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al-Raed's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Across their last 10 games, Al-Ettifaq have recorded 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Al-Ettifaq's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Raed at 1.40 PPG versus Al-Ettifaq's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Al-Raed have won 1, Al-Ettifaq 1, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2023, ended Al-Raed 0–0 Al-Ettifaq — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Al-Raed in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Al-Ettifaq in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 57% versus Al-Ettifaq 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 66% | Al-Ettifaq 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 0.94 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.869 / defence 0.909 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.798 / defence 0.770. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.433. Al-Ettifaq bring a tight defence (rating 0.770, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Al-Raed's projected output down. Al-Ettifaq's attack rating of 0.798 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.04. Data: built from Al-Raed's last 58 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 58.

Result probabilities: Al-Raed 31% | Draw 32% | Al-Ettifaq 36%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 3.20 | Draw 3.09 | Al-Ettifaq 2.75. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ettifaq at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.98 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Raed's last 10 home games and Al-Ettifaq's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Raed 50% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ettifaq 30% (last 10 away games).

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