Al-Ittihad FC 1-3 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab encounter.

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Analysis

Al Shabab make the trip to King Abdullah Sports City to face Al-Ittihad FC in Pro League (matchday 29). The match kicks off on Friday 26 April 2024 at 20:00 UK time.

Form

Al-Ittihad FC (all games): 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al-Ittihad FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al Shabab have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Al Shabab's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form ledger tips toward Al-Ittihad FC. A 0.50 PPG lead over Al Shabab (2.20 vs 1.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Nov 2023, ended Al-Ittihad FC 0–1 Al Shabab — a Al Shabab win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.

Al Shabab half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 45% versus Al Shabab 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 60% | Al Shabab 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.18 xG and Al Shabab 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.159 / defence 0.965 | Al Shabab attack 0.742 / defence 0.723. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.414. Al Shabab bring a tight defence (rating 0.723, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Al-Ittihad FC's projected output down. Al Shabab's attack rating of 0.742 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Data: built from Al-Ittihad FC's last 58 games and Al Shabab's last 58.

Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 39% | Draw 30% | Al Shabab 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 2.56 | Draw 3.30 | Al Shabab 3.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Al-Ittihad FC 80% (last 10 home games) | Al Shabab 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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