Al-Raed 2-2 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Raed host Al-Ettifaq at Al Raid Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 April 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Raed stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al-Raed's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Al Raid Club Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ettifaq have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Al-Ettifaq's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Raed at 1.40 PPG versus Al-Ettifaq's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al-Raed, 1 for Al-Ettifaq and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Raed in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Ettifaq in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 57% versus Al-Ettifaq 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 66% | Al-Ettifaq 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 0.94 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.869 / defence 0.909 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.798 / defence 0.770. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.433. Al-Ettifaq's defence strength of 0.770 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 58 Al-Raed games / 58 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 31% | Draw 32% | Al-Ettifaq 36%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | Al-Ettifaq 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ettifaq at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.98 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Raed 50% | Al-Ettifaq 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Al Raid Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 31% | Draw 32% | Al-Ettifaq 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Al-Raed 0.94 / Al-Ettifaq 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.869 / def 0.909 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.798 / def 0.770 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Al-Ettifaq xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Al Raid Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Raed 2 - 2 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Al Raid Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 31% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Raed 1W | Draws 3 | Al-Ettifaq 1W.
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Raed's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Al-Ettifaq's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al-Raed's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
31%
3.20
32%
3.09
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
1.98
1.04
Al-Ettifaq xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
11%
9.04
14%
7.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 14.3 | 7.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.04 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Raed's recent record stands at 17W 13D 28L from 58 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 20W 17D 21L across 58 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-D-L-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Raed on 1.10 PPG, Al-Ettifaq on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Raed have managed 10W 4D 15L from 29 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ettifaq's away record stands at 8W 8D 13L across 29 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Raed are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.05 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Current Season
Al-Ettifaq
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 17W 13D 28L in their last 58 games (1.10 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 20W 17D 21L in their last 58 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Raed's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.17 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Al-Raed or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Raed have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al-Raed's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Al-Raed
5
Draws
1
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 2, Al-Ettifaq have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Al-Raed 1-1 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Raed have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 52%, Al-Ettifaq 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Al-Raed) and 31% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq in 34%; Al-Raed have failed to score in 31% of games; Al-Ettifaq in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 31% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 66% of Al-Raed's recent games and 31% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq finished level at 2-2 at Al Raid Club Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 0.94 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.04 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al-Raed beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ettifaq outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.87 / defence 0.91 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.80 / defence 0.77, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 31% | Draw 32% | Al-Ettifaq 36%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 66%, Al-Ettifaq 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Raed 1.10 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.