Al-Raed 0-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Ahli Jeddah make the trip to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium to face Al-Raed in Pro League, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Friday 11 April 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Raed (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Raed's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 games at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's overall Pro League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W D L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Ahli Jeddah are 1.60 PPG clear of Al-Raed in recent Pro League fixtures (2.00 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Raed lead 2W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.4 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2024, ended 0–2 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Raed — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Ahli Jeddah — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 57% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 57% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 0.91 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.746 / defence 1.186 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.125 / defence 0.848. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.312. Al-Raed's attack strength of 0.746 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Al-Raed games / 60 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 19% | Draw 23% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 57%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 5.26 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Raed 60% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 11 Apr 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 19% | Draw 23% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 49% | xG Al-Raed 0.91 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.746 / def 1.186 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.125 / def 0.848 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 11 April 2025 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Raed 0 - 2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 19% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 57% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al-Raed and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Raed 2W | Draws 2 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1W.
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Raed's attack rating (0.75) and Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack (1.12x) against Al-Raed's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.8%), 0-2 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
19%
5.17
23%
4.27
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
2.66
1.75
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
5.17
19%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
17%
5.75
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
3%
29.74
23%
4.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 12.2 | 10.7 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.75 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Raed's recent record stands at 14W 13D 33L from 60 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ahli Jeddah, meanwhile, have gone 34W 12D 14L across 60 games — 1.90 PPG, with W-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ahli Jeddah by 0.98 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Raed heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Raed have managed 7W 6D 17L from 30 games — 0.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record stands at 15W 5D 10L across 30 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Raed are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 1.95 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 14W 13D 33L in their last 60 games (0.92 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 34W 12D 14L in their last 60 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 0.90 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Al-Raed or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Raed have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Raed have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ahli Jeddah — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al-Raed
2
Draws
2
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 2, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2025, when Al-Raed 0-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 53%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Al-Raed) and 60% (Al-Ahli Jeddah). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 33%; Al-Raed have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 53% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Al-Raed's matches and 60% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's.
Do Al-Raed and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ahli Jeddah cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Raed.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Raed 0-2 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 0.91 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.75 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Raed fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.75 / defence 1.19 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.12 / defence 0.85, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 19% | Draw 23% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 57%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 57%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 0.92. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.