Al-Raed 4-3 Abha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Raed vs Abha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Abdullah Sport City Stadium plays host to Al-Raed versus Abha in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Friday 29 December 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Raed have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Raed have posted 3W 1D 6L at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Abha's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 3.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Abha have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 3.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Al-Raed against 0.80 for Abha. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Raed lead 2W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 0–1 with Abha winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al-Raed half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Abha half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 54% versus Abha 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Raed 67% | Abha 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 2.16 xG and Abha 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.858 / defence 1.046 | Abha attack 0.834 / defence 1.655. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.394. Abha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.655 — this is suppressing Al-Raed's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Al-Raed games / 48 Abha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 59% | Draw 21% | Abha 20%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | Abha 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Al-Raed (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.16 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Raed at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.38 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Raed 40% | Abha 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Abha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 59% | Draw 21% | Abha 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 63% | xG Al-Raed 2.16 / Abha 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.858 / def 1.046 | Abha attack 0.834 / def 1.655 | league avg home 1.524 / away 1.394 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Abha xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Abha kick off?
Al-Raed vs Abha kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 29 December 2023 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Abha?
Al-Raed 4 - 3 Abha.
Where is Al-Raed vs Abha being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Abha part of?
Al-Raed vs Abha is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Abha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 59% chance of winning, Abha a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Abha?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al-Raed and Abha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Abha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Abha?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Raed 2W | Draws 0 | Abha 3W.
What form are Al-Raed and Abha in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Abha (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 3.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Raed's attack rating (0.86) and Abha's defence rating (1.66), the model arrives at 2.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Abha's attack (0.83x) against Al-Raed's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
59%
1.71
21%
4.76
20%
4.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
3.38
1.22
Abha xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
4.91
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
11%
8.71
Win to Nil
17%
5.76
2%
42.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Abha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Abha expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.22 for Abha, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Abha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Raed come into this having played 48 games, going 13W 11D 24L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-W. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Abha sit at 0.98 PPG from 48 outings (14W 5D 29L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Al-Raed against 0.98 for Abha. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Raed's home form reads 8W 3D 13L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Abha have taken 0.42 points per game from 24 outings (3W 1D 20L). That's a step down from their 0.98 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Abha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Raed come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Raed are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Abha are on 1.08 scored and 2.08 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Blended
Abha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Abha in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 13W 11D 24L in their last 48 games (1.04 PPG), while Abha have gone 14W 5D 29L in their last 48 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Abha away?
Al-Raed's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.12 PPG; Abha away: 0.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 December 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Raed have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Abha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al-Raed
0
Draws
3
Abha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Abha?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 3, Abha have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Abha last play each other?
They last met on 29 December 2023, when Al-Raed 4-3 Abha.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 54%, Abha 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Al-Raed and 67% for Abha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Raed have failed to score in 29% of games; Abha in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Abha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Abha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 50% of Abha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Raed vs Abha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Al-Raed's matches and 67% of Abha's.
Do Al-Raed and Abha tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Abha in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Raed edge out Abha 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Raed beat Abha 4-3 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 2.16 xG and Abha 1.22 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Al-Raed beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Abha outscored their 1.22 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.86 / defence 1.05 against Abha attack 0.83 / defence 1.66, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 59% | Draw 21% | Abha 20%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 67%, Abha 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Abha's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Raed 1.04 PPG, Abha 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Raed win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Raed (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Abha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.