Al-Fateh 0-0 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Fateh and Al Okhdood meet at Al Fateh Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 December 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Al-Fateh have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Okhdood have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Okhdood away from home this season: 2W 1D 5L from 8 away games — 0.88 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Al-Fateh, 1.20 for Al Okhdood — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al-Fateh, 0 for Al Okhdood and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2023, ended 3–1 with Al-Fateh winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al-Fateh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Al Okhdood goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 72% versus Al Okhdood 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 61% | Al Okhdood 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.62 xG and Al Okhdood 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.922 / defence 1.002 | Al Okhdood attack 0.647 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.395. Data: 48 Al-Fateh games / 18 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 54% | Draw 25% | Al Okhdood 21%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Al Okhdood 4.76. Al-Fateh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fateh 60% | Al Okhdood 38%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Al Fateh Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 54% | Draw 25% | Al Okhdood 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Al-Fateh 1.62 / Al Okhdood 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.922 / def 1.002 | Al Okhdood attack 0.647 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.395 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Al Okhdood xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 30 December 2023 at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood?
Al-Fateh 0 - 0 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 54% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al Okhdood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Okhdood?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Fateh 1W | Draws 0 | Al Okhdood 0W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Okhdood in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Al Okhdood (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Fateh's attack at 0.92x the league average against Al Okhdood's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Okhdood's attack (0.65x) against Al-Fateh's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 48/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
54%
1.85
25%
4.00
21%
4.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.53
0.91
Al Okhdood xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
4.80
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
4%
24.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.7 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 0.91 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Fateh come into this having played 18 games, going 8W 4D 6L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-W. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Okhdood sit at 1.06 PPG from 18 outings (6W 1D 11L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fateh carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Al Okhdood — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Fateh's home form reads 3W 1D 4L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Okhdood have taken 0.88 points per game from 8 outings (2W 1D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 0.72 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al Okhdood
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 8W 4D 6L in their last 18 games (1.56 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 6W 1D 11L in their last 18 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al Okhdood away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.25 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fateh have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Okhdood — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al-Fateh
1
Draws
2
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Okhdood?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 3, Al Okhdood have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al Okhdood last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Al Okhdood 1-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al Okhdood?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 50%, Al Okhdood 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Fateh) and 38% (Al Okhdood).
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh have failed to score in 50% of games; Al Okhdood in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al Okhdood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 38% of Al Okhdood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 38% of Al Okhdood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al Okhdood tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Al Okhdood in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Fateh's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh and Al Okhdood finished level at 0-0 at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.62 xG and Al Okhdood 0.91 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Fateh fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Al Okhdood landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.92 / defence 1.00 against Al Okhdood attack 0.65 / defence 1.15, drawn from 48/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 54% | Draw 25% | Al Okhdood 21%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 61%, Al Okhdood 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Fateh arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.