Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-1 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Qadisiyah FC host Al Khaleej Saihat at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 19 September 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Qadisiyah FC — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al-Qadisiyah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Al-Qadisiyah FC are significantly better at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Khaleej Saihat stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Khaleej Saihat have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Khaleej Saihat's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Al-Qadisiyah FC have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 0 for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Al Khaleej Saihat in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% versus Al Khaleej Saihat 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% | Al Khaleej Saihat 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.81 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.173 / defence 0.884 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.205 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.578 / away 1.445. Al Khaleej Saihat have an above-average attack strength of 1.205 — the away xG of 1.54 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 36 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 44% | Draw 23% | Al Khaleej Saihat 33%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.27 | Draw 4.35 | Al Khaleej Saihat 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.35 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 70% | Al Khaleej Saihat 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 19 Sep 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 44% | Draw 23% | Al Khaleej Saihat 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.81 / Al Khaleej Saihat 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.173 / def 0.884 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.205 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.578 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 16:15 on Friday 19 September 2025 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Qadisiyah FC 2 - 1 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 44% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 33% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Qadisiyah FC 1W | Draws 1 | Al Khaleej Saihat 0W.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Qadisiyah FC's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Al Khaleej Saihat's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. The same calculation in reverse, Al Khaleej Saihat's attack versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
44%
2.26
23%
4.42
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
3.35
1.54
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
2.26
44%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
16%
6.09
Win to Nil
9%
10.54
5%
18.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.8 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.54 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent record stands at 22W 6D 8L from 36 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Khaleej Saihat, meanwhile, have gone 12W 7D 17L across 36 games — 1.19 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Qadisiyah FC by 0.81 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Khaleej Saihat heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Qadisiyah FC have managed 14W 2D 2L from 18 games — 2.44 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Al-Qadisiyah FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al Khaleej Saihat's away record stands at 7W 3D 8L across 18 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 1.31 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Early Season
Al Khaleej Saihat
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 22W 6D 8L in their last 36 games (2.00 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 12W 7D 17L in their last 36 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.44 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al Khaleej Saihat been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Al Khaleej Saihat in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Qadisiyah FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's record when hosting Al Khaleej Saihat specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1
Draws
0
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 3, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat 0-1 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%, Al Khaleej Saihat 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 72% for Al Khaleej Saihat. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Al Khaleej Saihat in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's games and 67% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's matches and 72% of Al Khaleej Saihat's.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Qadisiyah FC edge out Al Khaleej Saihat 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Khaleej Saihat 2-1 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.81 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.54 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.17 / defence 0.88 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.21 / defence 0.98, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 44% | Draw 23% | Al Khaleej Saihat 33%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%, Al Khaleej Saihat 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.