Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-1 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 17 as Al-Qadisiyah FC welcome Al-Ittihad FC to Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 22 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Al-Qadisiyah FC are significantly better at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 7W 3D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.40 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Qadisiyah FC at 2.00 PPG versus Al-Ittihad FC's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Qadisiyah FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 0, Al-Ittihad FC 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 51% versus Al-Ittihad FC 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 55% | Al-Ittihad FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.96 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.375 / defence 0.633 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.360 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.488. Al-Qadisiyah FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.375 — their λ of 1.96 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ittihad FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.360 — the away xG of 1.28 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating of 0.633 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 49 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 53% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Ittihad FC 4.17. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 60% | Al-Ittihad FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 22 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 53% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad FC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 62% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.96 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.375 / def 0.633 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.360 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.488 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Al-Ittihad FC xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 17:30 on Thursday 22 January 2026 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC 2 - 1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 53% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Qadisiyah FC 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Ittihad FC 1W.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack at 1.38x the league average against Al-Ittihad FC's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
53%
1.90
23%
4.38
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
3.24
1.28
Al-Ittihad FC xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
14%
7.09
Win to Nil
15%
6.82
3%
29.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.28 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Qadisiyah FC come into this having played 49 games, going 31W 8D 10L for 2.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ittihad FC sit at 2.24 PPG from 49 outings (34W 8D 7L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Qadisiyah FC on 2.06 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC on 2.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home form reads 18W 4D 2L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ittihad FC have taken 2.04 points per game from 24 outings (14W 7D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 2.18 scored and 1.08 conceded. Al-Ittihad FC's attacking output running into Al-Qadisiyah FC's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC in 63%.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 31W 8D 10L in their last 49 games (2.06 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 34W 8D 7L in their last 49 (2.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.42 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 2.04 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ittihad FC runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1
Draws
2
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 5 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, Al-Ittihad FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 0-1 Al-Ittihad FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 46%, Al-Ittihad FC 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Al-Qadisiyah FC) and 58% (Al-Ittihad FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's games and 71% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's matches and 58% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Qadisiyah FC edge out Al-Ittihad FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.96 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.28 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.38 / defence 0.63 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.36 / defence 0.93, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 53% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad FC 24%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 55%, Al-Ittihad FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.06 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC 2.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Qadisiyah FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.