Al-Qadisiyah FC 5-0 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 15 as Al-Qadisiyah FC welcome Al-Fayha to Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 14 January 2026 at 14:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Al-Qadisiyah FC are significantly better at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Qadisiyah FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Al-Fayha in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 1 for Al-Fayha and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2025, ended 1–2 with Al-Fayha winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 51% versus Al-Fayha 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 53% | Al-Fayha 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.94 xG and Al-Fayha 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.192 / defence 0.719 | Al-Fayha attack 0.826 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.429. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating of 0.719 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 47 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 63% | Draw 21% | Al-Fayha 16%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Al-Fayha 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Al-Qadisiyah FC 70% | Al-Fayha 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 Jan 2026, 14:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 63% | Draw 21% | Al-Fayha 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 49% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.94 / Al-Fayha 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.192 / def 0.719 | Al-Fayha attack 0.826 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.429 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Al-Fayha xG
49%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 14:45 on Wednesday 14 January 2026 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha?
Al-Qadisiyah FC 5 - 0 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 63% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Qadisiyah FC 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Fayha 1W.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack rating (1.19) and Al-Fayha's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
63%
1.59
21%
4.70
16%
6.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
2.79
0.85
Al-Fayha xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
6.37
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
14%
6.97
Win to Nil
27%
3.71
2%
44.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 10.1 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 0.85 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent record stands at 29W 8D 10L from 47 games, a 2.02 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 11W 16D 20L across 47 games — 1.04 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Qadisiyah FC by 0.98 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fayha heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Qadisiyah FC have managed 17W 4D 2L from 23 games — 2.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fayha's away record stands at 5W 7D 11L across 23 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 0.83 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 29W 8D 10L in their last 47 games (2.02 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 11W 16D 20L in their last 47 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.39 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Al-Qadisiyah FC
0
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 3, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Al-Fayha 1-2 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 48%, Al-Fayha 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Al-Qadisiyah FC) and 61% (Al-Fayha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Al-Fayha in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent matches and 48% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's matches and 61% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Qadisiyah FC run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Al-Fayha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al-Fayha 5-0 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.94 xG and Al-Fayha 0.85 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Fayha landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.19 / defence 0.72 against Al-Fayha attack 0.83 / defence 1.08, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 63% | Draw 21% | Al-Fayha 16%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 53%, Al-Fayha 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.91 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.