Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-3 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 7 as Al-Qadisiyah FC welcome Al-Ettifaq to EGO Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 11 September 2026 at 15:25 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Qadisiyah FC — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.70 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Qadisiyah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Qadisiyah FC at EGO Stadium this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ettifaq have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ettifaq's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.70 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 1 for Al-Ettifaq and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 2–3 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Al-Ettifaq in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 65% versus Al-Ettifaq 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 68% | Al-Ettifaq 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.35 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.279 / defence 1.007 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.980 / defence 0.791. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.286. Al-Qadisiyah FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.279 — their λ of 1.35 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ettifaq's defence strength of 0.791 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 40 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 40 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 36% | Draw 32% | Al-Ettifaq 32%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Al-Ettifaq 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Qadisiyah FC 60% | Al-Ettifaq 30%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: EGO Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 11 Sep 2026, 15:25 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 36% | Draw 32% | Al-Ettifaq 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.35 / Al-Ettifaq 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.279 / def 1.007 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.980 / def 0.791 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Al-Ettifaq xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 15:25 on Friday 11 September 2026 at EGO Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Qadisiyah FC 3 - 3 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at EGO Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 36% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Qadisiyah FC 2W | Draws 1 | Al-Ettifaq 1W.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack at 1.28x the league average against Al-Ettifaq's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
36%
2.78
32%
3.13
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
2.62
1.27
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
10%
9.88
8%
12.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.5 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.27 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent record stands at 28W 8D 4L from 40 games, a 2.30 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 17W 9D 14L across 40 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L-L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Qadisiyah FC by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ettifaq heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Qadisiyah FC have managed 12W 6D 1L from 19 games — 2.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ettifaq's away record stands at 9W 2D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 2.40 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.48 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Qadisiyah FC have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Early Season
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 28W 8D 4L in their last 40 games (2.30 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 17W 9D 14L in their last 40 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.21 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Feb 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
2
Draws
1
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq?
From 5 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, Al-Ettifaq have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-3 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 58%, Al-Ettifaq 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Al-Qadisiyah FC) and 53% (Al-Ettifaq). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent matches and 47% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's matches and 53% of Al-Ettifaq's.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq finished level at 3-3 at EGO Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.35 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.27 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ettifaq outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.28 / defence 1.01 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.98 / defence 0.79, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 36% | Draw 32% | Al-Ettifaq 32%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 68%, Al-Ettifaq 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.