Al Okhdood 0-3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Okhdood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 9 as Al Okhdood welcome Al-Hilal Saudi FC to Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 October 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Okhdood stand at 2W 1D 5L from 8 Pro League matches — 0.88 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.62 goals per game and conceding 1.12 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Okhdood's form when playing at home: 0W 0D 4L across 4 games at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium this term (0.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.00 lags behind their overall 0.88 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium this season.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have recorded 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Hilal Saudi FC are 1.72 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 0.88), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Al Okhdood's 25% rate and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
In-Play Data
Al Okhdood trading profile (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC trading profile (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 38% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al Okhdood 25% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 0.77 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.575 / defence 1.012 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.366 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.445. Al Okhdood's attack strength of 0.575 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.366 — the away xG of 2.00 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 8 Al Okhdood games / 38 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 13% | Draw 20% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 66%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 7.69 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (66%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 25% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Oct 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 13% | Draw 20% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 46% | xG Al Okhdood 0.77 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.575 / def 1.012 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.366 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
2.00
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
46%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al Okhdood 0 - 3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 13% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 66% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Okhdood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al Okhdood (all comps): 2W-1D-5L in 8 | 0.88 PPG | GF 0.62 / GA 1.12 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Okhdood's attack rating (0.57) and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 0.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus Al Okhdood's defence, projects 2.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.3%), 1-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
13%
7.42
20%
4.91
66%
1.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.5%
Away win
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
2.77
2.00
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
7.42
13%
Home win
4.91
20%
Draw
1.51
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
14%
7.37
46%
2.16
Win to Nil
2%
54.75
31%
3.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 12.6 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 2.00 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 8 outings, Al Okhdood have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 2W 1D 5L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form line: 6W 2D 0L from 8 games, 2.50 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 1.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Okhdood.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Okhdood have posted 0.00 PPG from 4 outings (0W 0D 4L). That actually lags their 0.88 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 away games — 2.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Okhdood are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.88 scored and 0.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 62%.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 games (0.88 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 6W 2D 0L in their last 8 (2.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Okhdood at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Okhdood at home: 0.00 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Al Okhdood or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Okhdood have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Feb 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Okhdood's record when hosting Al-Hilal Saudi FC specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al Okhdood
0
Draws
6
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Okhdood have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2026, when Al Okhdood 0-6 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Okhdood see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Okhdood 25%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Al Okhdood) and 75% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC).
On the defensive side: Al Okhdood have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Okhdood play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Al Okhdood's recent matches and 75% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Okhdood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Al Okhdood's recent games and 75% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Okhdood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al Okhdood have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Hilal Saudi FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Al Okhdood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Okhdood 0-3 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 0.77 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.00 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC outscored their 2.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.57 / defence 1.01 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.37 / defence 0.90, drawn from 8/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 13% | Draw 20% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 66%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 25%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.