Al-Nassr 2-3 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Nassr at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 30 as Al-Nassr welcome Al-Ittihad FC to Al-Awwal Park. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 7 May 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Nassr — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Al-Nassr's home record at Al-Awwal Park: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Al-Ittihad FC away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Al-Nassr) versus 1.90 (Al-Ittihad FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al-Nassr, 3 for Al-Ittihad FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2024, ended 1–2 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Nassr in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Nassr 71% and Al-Ittihad FC 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Nassr 78% | Al-Ittihad FC 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.72 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.232 / defence 0.943 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.049 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.421. Data: 63 Al-Nassr games / 63 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 44% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 2.27 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Ittihad FC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 80% | Al-Ittihad FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Al-Awwal Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 7 May 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 44% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Al-Nassr 1.72 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.232 / def 0.943 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.049 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.421 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Al-Ittihad FC xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 7 May 2025 at Al-Awwal Park.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Nassr 2 - 3 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Al-Awwal Park.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 44% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Nassr 2W | Draws 1 | Al-Ittihad FC 3W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Nassr's attack at 1.23x the league average against Al-Ittihad FC's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
44%
2.25
24%
4.08
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
3.12
1.41
Al-Ittihad FC xG
2.25
44%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
11%
9.17
6%
18.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.6 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.41 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Al-Nassr have picked up 2.25 PPG on a 44W 10D 9L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Al-Ittihad FC's form line: 37W 11D 15L from 63 games, 1.94 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Nassr on 2.25 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC on 1.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Nassr have posted 2.16 PPG from 31 outings (20W 7D 4L).
On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 14W 8D 9L from 31 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.57 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 2.05 scored and 1.33 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Al-Ittihad FC in 67%.
Last 63 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Current Season
Al-Ittihad FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 44W 10D 9L in their last 63 games (2.25 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 37W 11D 15L in their last 63 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.16 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Feb 2022, when Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Nassr
1
Draws
5
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 4, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 71%, Al-Ittihad FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Al-Nassr and 55% for Al-Ittihad FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Al-Nassr's games and 58% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Al-Nassr's matches and 55% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Ittihad FC defy the odds to beat Al-Nassr 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Nassr 2-3 at Al-Awwal Park, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.72 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.41 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC outscored their 1.41 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.23 / defence 0.94 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.05 / defence 0.90, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 44% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad FC 31%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Al-Ittihad FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 78%, Al-Ittihad FC 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Nassr 2.25 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC 1.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ittihad FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.